2020 Weekly Commentary

* Update (12/24/20)
* Wedging Again?(12/18/20)
* Convergence (12/11/20)
* Tracking the Large Structure (12/4/20)
* INDU caught up to ATH (11/27/20)
* Another Slow Market (11/20/20)
* A Slow Market (11/13/20)
* Election Week (11/6/20)
* Election Risk Premimum (10/30/20)
* A Week Before THE Elecion (10/23/20)
* Probing (10/16/20)
* ABC down & ABC up (10/9/20)
* October Volatility (10/2/20)
* Suspense (9/25/20)
* Down Swing (9/18/20)
* Building Blocks (9/11/20)
* Reaction (9/4/20)
* Worth Repeating (8/28/20)
* Small Wedge (8/21/20)
* Jigsaw (8/14/20)
* Gap Filled (8/7/20)
* Gap (7/31/20)
* Gap (7/24/20)
* Update (7/17/20)
* Probing Support (6/26/20)
* Update (6/19/20)
* Perspective (6/12/20)
* Probing New High (6/5/20)
* Wedges (5/29/20)
* WXY (5/22/20)
* WXY (5/15/20)
* Short Term Update (5/9/20)
* Fib618 Retrace (5/1/20)
* Probing (4/24/20)
* At Sup/Res Zone(4/17/20)
* Approaching Sup/Res Zone(4/9/20)
* Rebound(4/4/20)
* Rebound or Bull-Trap (3/27/20)
* Near Term Bottom Fishing (3/20/20)
* ABC/123 and Long Term Tracking (3/13/20)
* Reversal(3/6/20)
* High - part 2(2/28/20)
* High(2/21/20)
* Wedging(2/14/20)
* Update(2/7/20)
* Reversal or Small-Degree Pullback (1/24/20)
* Reversal or Larger-Degree Pullback (1/24/20)
* Expanding EDT and Triple ZigZag (1/17/20)
* Tracking and Squiggles (1/10/20)
* Update (1/3/20)

Monday Update (12/28/20)

Today's uptick EITHER invalidates the gray wedge  OR the gray wedge is part of wave [b]-up of the blue B-down. 

This interpretation leaves two short term tracking counts with different upside potential- the green [c] of C-up     or   the blue C-up. 

See charts. 

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Update (12/24/20)

 

Wednesday Update (12/23/20)

 [EOD] - 

 Only 5 points away from invalidating the wedge failure at the day's high.  The EOD decline filled the gap at the open and sent SPX back to the gray line.

[1038am NYSE] - 

SPX gaped over short term decline line (gray) and is probing the (rising) underside of the wedge a second time.  Also points away from invalidating the wedge failure. 

 

 

 

Tuesday Update (12/22/20)

Closed below the underside of the wedge.  Small consolidation has been running since the rebound high. 

 

Monday Update (12/21/20)

 [EOD] -

 Hugging the underside of the wedge at the close. 

 [120pm NYSE] -

If we indeed have a wedge discussed over the weekend, price action confirms its failure. Current rebound is kissing the underside of the wedge. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Wedging again? (12/18/20)

 SPX is crawling along an overhead trend line while making new record highs while doing so. 

We now have 4 legs of a potential small wedge  to conclude a zigzag since Nov.   Based on today's low, the 5th leg is capped at 3779.14 to coincide with the Santa rally,   or could fail - given the end of day rebound, a breach of the wave [d] floor of 3647.71 would offer initial confirmation of a failure.

 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Convergence (12/11/20)

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Tracking the Larger Structure (12/4/20)

 If the prior upswing in SPX ended in 2018 (red), the upside potential of this corrective structure (wxy or expanding triangle) is likely met soon. 

Wednesday Update (12/3/20)

 SPX is at the gray trend line, could it be all of the red [y]  or  part or all of the blue [z]?

 

 

Here is the daily chart

MTU Weekend Ed - INDU caught up to ATH

 U.S.

GER

UK

MTU Weekend Ed - Another Slow Week (11/20/20)

 Another slow week, but the big tracking patterns remain unchanged and SPX is now probing short term support. 

MTU Weekend Ed - A Slow Market (11/13/20 close)

 A slow market - no change in the higher degree tracking scenarios - could pick up speed over the next few weeks. 

Mondy Update (11/9/20)

 New  all-time high in SPX and INDU but not NDX.  Potential paths to watch...

MTU Weekend Ed - Election Week (11/6/20)

 Election risk premium now priced out.  

Thursday Update (11/5/20)

 Election Day + 2

Wednesday Update (11/4/20)

 1 Day after the election day

Tuesday Update (11/3/20)

 Election Day

Monday Update (11/1/20)

 Today's high in SPX kisses the small base channel from below. 

MTU Month-End Ed. - Election Risk Premium (10/30/20)

MTU Weekend Ed. - A Week Before THE Election (10/23/20 close)

 [10/29/20 EOD] Thursday Update

 

 [10/28/20 EOD] Wednesday Update

 A clean break down.

 

 

[10/26/20 EOD] Monday Update

Finally broke and closed below the prior breakout area. 

[10/23/20 EOD]

MTU Weekend Ed - Probing (10/16/20)

[10/20/20  Wednesday EOD]

Tug of war at the prior breakout area.

 

[10/20/20  Tuesday EOD]

1-2-1-2 down or LD-down? 

 

[10/19/20 Monday EOD]

 

[10/16/20 Friday EOD]

This past week's downs-swing in SPX probed its short-term breakout level.  The subsequent upswing probed the underside of the broken previous short-term trend-line.

 

Thursday Update (10/15/20)

 Filled a gap two days later.  Probed the breakout level on the third day - saw an initial bounce so far. 

Wednesday Update (10/14/20)

 Fills a gap two days later. 

Monday Update (10/12/20)