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Saturday, August 22, 2020
MTU Weekend Ed - Small Wedge (8/21/20 close)
No change in the larger tracking counts. A potential small EDT is seen in SPX, with tracking squiggles shown in Chart 2. [PS on Aug 24. EDT invalidated]
Each stk or commodity will be at its own vibration or EW point but I had cause to review Disney DIS LT chart to ses what probably clearly looks like the slide from Nov to March-May being an A wave (or 1 of neg 5) and the rally to date since as a B wave (or 2 of neg 5) with distortions in the pattern.
Log charts distort the ST MT picture and even yours shows the Nov 2019 peak as doubling the 2000-09 range.
Example - You would not have got a buy signal from this log chart after the 1987 crash when a linear one would have said possible low as the 87 top of around $7 was back to around 50% retracement at $3.50. Visually the log doesnt show it clearly. Logs distort the waves except in extreme mkts which dont happen most of the time.
Depends on how one reads the log chart. A fixed vertical distance represents a fixed % up or a fixed % retrace.
Use the 87 crash as a yard stick (about 1cm or 1 block), represents 50% retrace if down or doubling if up. By that measure, the 2019 peak is about 2cm or 2 blocks above the 2000 high. That means the 2019 peak is roughly 4 times the 2000 high. The 2007-2009 crash and the 2020 crash is about the same distance (1cm) down as the 87 crash. That means roughly 50% retrace for all of them.
Lastly, on a LT linear chart, the 87 crash is an obscure blip since the price is so low (7, 3) compare to much higher price on the right right of the chart (150). It would be very hard to tell it's a 50% retrace
Each stk or commodity will be at its own vibration or EW point but I had cause to review Disney DIS LT chart to ses what probably clearly looks like the slide from Nov to March-May being an A wave (or 1 of neg 5) and the rally to date since as a B wave (or 2 of neg 5) with distortions in the pattern.
ReplyDeleteThis may be indicative of mkt.
Your thts MTU ?
See LT chart posted above. Hard to say. No LT overlap yet.
DeleteLog charts distort the ST MT picture and even yours shows the Nov 2019 peak as doubling the 2000-09 range.
DeleteExample - You would not have got a buy signal from this log chart after the 1987 crash when a linear one would have said possible low as the 87 top of around $7 was back to around 50% retracement at $3.50. Visually the log doesnt show it clearly. Logs distort the waves except in extreme mkts which dont happen most of the time.
Depends on how one reads the log chart.
DeleteA fixed vertical distance represents a fixed % up or a fixed % retrace.
Use the 87 crash as a yard stick (about 1cm or 1 block), represents 50% retrace if down or doubling if up.
By that measure, the 2019 peak is about 2cm or 2 blocks above the 2000 high. That means the 2019 peak is roughly 4 times the 2000 high.
The 2007-2009 crash and the 2020 crash is about the same distance (1cm) down as the 87 crash. That means roughly 50% retrace for all of them.
Lastly, on a LT linear chart, the 87 crash is an obscure blip since the price is so low (7, 3) compare to much higher price on the right right of the chart (150). It would be very hard to tell it's a 50% retrace