Monday, April 30, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/30/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
The rebound into the close is best counted as a small degree wave 2/B rebound with further decline to come (Chart 1, blue and red counts).  The rebound has the potential to fill today's open gap.
The green count in Chart 1 shows the bullish squiggles.  
Chart 2 shows how these squiggle counts fit into the larger count.
On a separate note, today's low rests on multiple technical support  levels.

[1225pm] SPX update -
SPX has traced out a visual five wave decline from Friday's high (Chart 1). Chart 2 shows how it fits into the larger wave structure. Note that this morning's low conveniently rests on a "base channel" boundary.

[830am] ES update -
Month end.

Friday, April 27, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (4/27/12 Close)

Key long term support for stocks is holding (see this chart in Retest (4/13/12)). We have a deep retrace of the April sell-off in SPX and INDU is only a few index points shy of a fresh high.  Whether this is a wave [b]/[x] rebound or the fresh advance remains to be seen (Chart 1 and Chart 2).

Market Timing Update (4/27/12)

[730am] ES update -
Five up

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/26/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Moment of truth.Also see chart on INDU (the 2nd chart under the 205pm entry.

[205pm] ES update -
Approaching the end of a five-up (blue,green). Alt is a 3rd wave advance is in progress (alt green).

[1145am] SPX update -
see the 2nd chart below. current high in SPX cash likely the end of 3rd wave or 5th wave up from the April 23rd low. [9am] ES update -
Likely a small degree 4th wave retrace in ES overnight. See chart.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/25/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX, INDU and NDX have traced out quite different wave structures. INDU offers the "cleanest" structure at the moment. The blue count puts INDU and SPX roughly in sync.

[850am] ES update -

[740am] DAX update - A truncated small-degree 5th in the DAX squiggles marked a near term low. Bearish wave [ii]-up rebound or bullish wave [v]-up advance under way. See yesterday's EOD update for details.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/24/12)

[EOD] Stocks - DAX has traced out a five wave decline from its recovery high (Chart 1). Whether the current low is the bullish green [iv] or the bearish blue 1-down remains to be seen.

For the very near term, squiggle count suggests one more lower low before a rebound, unless a truncated low was already in place. On a separate note, SPX has traced out a five wave decline from today's high.

As such, assuming SPX rebounds with DAX, one finds the blue count on SPX (Chart 2) a probable tracking count, followed by the green count if the low in DAX is wave [iv].

There are more bearish count, such as a 3 of 3 down in DAX coming. But it is likely of lower probability.

[2pm] SPX / NDX update -
color coded counts. see charts.

[840am] ES update -

Monday, April 23, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/23/12)

[PS] NDX and TRANsports -
Some potentially (immediately) bullish configurations. See charts.
NDX - double zigzag decline complete ? (blue)
TRAN - a potential 4th wave triangle for 5-up of (3)-up or (C)-up since its 2011 low?

[EOD] Stocks -
There has been no follow-through with respect to the overnight drop, neither with respect to the rebound from this morning's low, so far.

ES futures offer more complete wave structures (Chart 1 to the right).

Price action favors the interpretation of the completion of an X-wave at today's low (see the blue count in Chart 2 SPX and Chart 3 INDU). Note the overlapping waves in INDU.

The alternative counts barbell the primary count.
(green - bullish) - The pullback is over, with allowance for perhaps one more lower low.
(red - bearish) - The next leg of decline has begun with a series of 1s and 2s or an LDT.

[940am] NDX/NQ update -

Chart is for NQ whose count can be easily mapped to NDX.
black - ABC-X-ABC almost done
green - ABC-triangle-ABC, with B-up and C-down to go
red - wave 3 or wave C down following an LD decline.

[735am] ES update -
ES breaks trend line once more on a news driven move. A quick rebound before the cash open could complete an E-wave of a potential triangle in SPX cash, otherwise blue [x] as marked or additional sell-off is in play.

Friday, April 20, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (4/20/12)

Based on price actions this past week, odds continue to favor the interpretation of a corrective pullback over an outright trend change. Furthermore, odds favor a fourth wave pullback over a larger X/B wave decline as long as short term support around 1345/1326 and longer term support around 1300 in SPX are intact. See Retest (4/13/12) for discussions.

We reiterate that “for the near term, the proposed fourth wave correction could take up more time and price range.”

Chart 1 presents top wave counts in SPX from its nominal high.

(purple - very bullish) The correction is (nearly) over in the form of an (A)-(B)-triangle (C) combination.

(green - bullish) The April low marks the end of the pullback. A leading-diagonal triangle (or even a series of 1s 2s) is in progress. The next upswing is wave E of the proposed LDT, to be followed by a sharp but successful retest of the lows.

(blue - bearish) Wave (B) rebound off the April low takes the form of an ABC-X-ABC structure. Expect lower lows after the final C wave of wave (B) is over.

Chart 2 does the same for NDX which has traced out a different wave structure.

Based on the tracking counts on SPX and NDX, odds favor one more near term upswing of uncertain size.  However, there’s no resolution as to whether the April low will hold.

Market Timing Update (4/20/12)

[1245pm] SPX squiggles -

[845am] ES update -
Morning setups-
(red - bearish) An [a][b][c] rebound ended on Apr 19, the next leg down is in progress.
(blue - semi bullish) A larger [w][x][y] rebound is in play (could be B-up of a triangle/flat/combo off the early April high). Yesterday's low is [x] or [x] has one more leg down. The Apr low holds for the near term.
(green - bullish) A LDT wave 1-up off the April low is in play (with some chance of a 1/2/1/2 setup). The current upswing is [e]-up of the proposed LDT.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/19/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Assuming the April low holds - an uncertain if - leave room for
[1] a bullish LDT-up wave 1 (green) or even a bullish setup 1/2/[i]/[ii] setup.
[2] A larger triangle/flat/combo, where the near term low is X/B-down of wave (B)-up (blue)

[1010am] SPX squiggles -
See the 2nd chart below
[735am] ES update -