Sunday, October 10, 2021

MTU Weekend Ed - Consolidation (10/8/21 close)

SPX is likely consolidating ahead of another leg down.  The potential structures of the rebound are a triangle (marked),  flat (marked), or a larger B-up wave from the nominal low this past week  (not marked).  See chart. 

Saturday, October 2, 2021

MTU Weekend Ed - Red October (10/1/21 close)

September not only delivered red candles in key U.S. stock benchmarks, but also saw index closes below the August lows. 

We have a three-wave advance since the March 2020 low, which has potentially concluded at the recent ATH.  If so, the subsequent correction of this advance is likely to be faster than the rise.  The 3725 area in SPX could represent meaningful support based on the price structure, but would imply a substantial decline from the high in percentage terms. 

How about risks to the bearish view?  Note that the Dow topped in August, a few weeks earlier than SPX.  Note that it is not easy or even possible to count a five-wave decline from the high yet.  Therefore it is possible that the current decline is the last leg of a flag-like structure since the August high.   That structure would translate into a potential fourth wave (or another x wave) since the Oct 2020 low. 


Sunday, September 26, 2021

MTU Weekend Ed - Wrapping up Q3 (9/24/21 close)

The August low in SPX was breached decisively this past week. As the 3rd quarter concludes this coming week, we will see if SPX delivers the first red monthly bar since January (Chart 1). 

The ongoing subsequent rebound is strong.  It likely will craw along the underside of a potential prior wedge as this potential topping process progresses (Chart 2). 

Sunday, September 19, 2021

MTU Weekend Ed - Turning (9/17/21 close)

SPX is potentially turning this month following a marginal ATH. 

Its low in August is 4367.73, which needs to be breached for a credible turn (Chart 1).

The index closed just below its 50-day SMA (Chart 2) after being rejected by the underside of a potential prior EDT (Chart 3).  Ideally, that resistance (4486.87) should not be regained to reflect any determination of a turn. 

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

MTU Weekend Ed. - Nested Wedges (9/3/21 close)

If nested wedges in SPX are present, the next correction is likely swift, taking less than 18 months to complete. 

Saturday, August 28, 2021

Sunday, August 22, 2021

MTU Weekend Ed. - Turn(ing) (8/20/21 close)

A clean top in SPX, but a three-wave decline so far (Chart 1). 

The three-wave decline can morph into a leading diagonal triangle or a large flat. If so, a meaning full top is likely in (blue (Y) Chart 2). 

The three-wave decline can be the entire correction.  In this case, an ending diagonal triangle may be wrapping up (green (Y) Chart 2).