Tuesday Update (2/25/20)

[Intraday update - 11am EST] As a follow up on yesterday's update - The drop from ATH could be counted as an impulse with an extended fifth wave. Some reaction at the red line looks probable. Note the near term positive divergence.

Monday Update (2/24/20)

[Intraday update - 145pm EST]
SPX cash missed its SMA50 with the gap down at the open.  Currently, some reaction at the red line looks probable.  The drop from ATH could be counted as an impulse with an extended fifth wave.

MTU Weekend Ed. - High (2/21/20 close)

Last week, we commented that ES is wedging. Now ES has dropped 2% over two days from its recent high.  Whether we track the advance since the October low as an ABC or a WYZ, the wave proportions appear good enough to conclude the pattern.  See Chart 1 and Chart 2 below.

The structure of the decline from ATH, however, presents much ambiguity.  See Chart 3 for a number of tracking counts.

Chart 4 updates the daily chart on SPX.

MTU Weekend Ed - Wedging (2/14/20 close)

MTU Weekend Ed. - (2/7/20 close)

The new ATH in SPX requires some adjustments in tracking counts. The following scenarios (Chart 1 ABC and Chart 2 Triple-Three) preserves the larger structure (Chart 3).  See previous posts for context.

MTU Month End Ed. - Reversal or Larger-Degree Pullback (1/31/20)

SPX tested its SMA50 today (Chart 1)

Last Week (1/24/20) Tracking count from Reversal or Small-Degree Pullback (1/24/20)

This Week (1/31/20),  the size of the net decline from ATH, based on wave degree considerations,  eliminates the small-degree pullback (green scenario in Chart 2 above,  b-down of (z)[e]-up form the red X in Chart 1 above).

Chart 3 below updates Chart 2 incorporating this week's additional sell-off.  

Furthermore, the possibility of a larger-degree pullback remains  (green scenario in Chart 3 below,  [b]-down of  Y-up from the grey X in Chart 1).

Chart 4 and Chart 5 update the triple-zigzag or the impulse tracking from the Oct low in ES.

MTU Weekend Ed - Reversal or Small-Degree Pullback (1/24/20 close)

There are now enough waves to complete a potential triple-zigzag or impulse in ES / SPX since its October low. Please Expanding EDT & Triple Zigzag (1/17/20) for larger-degree details. Chart 1 (triple zigzag) and Chart 2 (impulse) update.

For the triple zigzag tracking count, it's possible that Friday's pullback is wave b-down of wave (z)-up. See Chart 3 for squiggles ( blue: completed impulse; black: completed final zigzag; green: b-down of (z)-up in the final zigzag).