Friday, December 14, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Range (Busting?) (12/14/18)

SPX monthly closed below its mid-BB line, eyeing the lower BB line (currently around 2370)
SPX weekly and daily broke their recent range. But the lack of momentum (so far) for wave [iii] of 3/C-down and the fact that the Dec 3rd high did not make a higher high (especially in INDU) present some flexibility going into the OPEX week, then the holiday week.  See the daily chart for bull/bear tracking.  Dynamic support is around 2570 (then 2500) and dynamic resistance is around 2670 then 2750.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/13/18)

SPX cash is still struggling with the green line (discussed yesterday).  Overnight futures dipped to probe the blue line.  While not required, the form would look better if there is one more higher high for the pink ii or red [b].

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Saturday, December 8, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - MA Crossings (12/7/18 close)

Moving average crossings paint a bearish picture for the intermediate term.  Wave structures offer short term flexibility.

The monthly SPX chart shows negative divergence (price vs RSI) against the double top in 2018.  The MACD also did a bearish crossing - note the significant weakness subsequent to such MACD bearish crossings in the past (circled).  SPX has been probing the mid-BB over the past three months.  If the mid-BB support does not hold, the lower BB (currently at 2372) presents a reasonable next-level support.

The weekly SPX chart shows the probing of the lower BB in recent weeks.  This past week's candle is not bullish.  The rectangle consolidation zone should be monitored.

The daily SPX chart finally did a death cross on Friday.  Note the steep decline in MA50 and the weakness in MA200.

Short term wave structures offer some flexibility since this past week's decline is likely a small degree first wave or B wave.

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/6/18)

Chart 1 - Less than 1 index point ahead of a death cross in SPX, bull (green) and bear (red) tracking.
Chart 2 - Squiggles from today's low associated with the bull-bear tracking.

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/5/18)

How does the plunge in today's ES fit the bigger picture?  Bull (green) / Bear (red) tracking.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/4/18)

A third failed probe at the MA200 from below in SPX. Less than 6 index points between MA50 and MA200 ahead of a potential death cross against the backdrop a yield curve inversion.

While a triangle is a less likely count, it's rather fitting for a bearish triangle to end on the perceived positive trade war development at G20.
SPX closed at the low and around the 0.618 fib retrace of its recent upswing. Tracking count

Friday, November 30, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Probing (11/30/18 close)

SPX  is probing its SMA200 (2761.88) from below for a third time since its ATH (Chart 1).  There is a cushion of 13 index points ahead of a potential death cross.  Nearby dynamic support is around 2710 and nearby dynamic resistance is around 2770.

There are two potential bearish counts below the early November high, a potential 1-2-[i]-[ii] (Chart 2 red) looks more likely than a potential bearish triangle (Chart 2 blue).

Rising above the early November high would present a potential ABC up from the Oct low (Chart 3).

Chart 4 presents tracking counts (bullish and bearish) in a single chart. 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Friday, November 23, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Fresh Closing Low (11/23/18)

SPX saw its lowest close (2632.56) since it late September peak.  While the Oct 29th intra-day low in SPX is lower, it closed at 2641.25 that day.  SPX is now probing its lower BB band once again (Chart 1).  The potential for a series of 1s/2s decline remains (Chart 2). Dynamic support levels are 2565, 2500, 2430 and dynamic resistance levels are 2725 and 2775.

 This week, the equal-weighted SP500 index joined RUT and MID in making a death cross (Chart 3).

Saturday, November 17, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Rolling Over (11/16/18 close)

The macro environment and market characters are slowly changing for stocks, consistent with a larger-degree correction in stocks.

- US liquidity is being mopped up as the Fed's balance sheet rolls over (Chart 1), somewhat offset by the perceived and actual return of capital and global capital flows at the moment.
- Small-cap and mid-cap indices just saw a death-cross in key moving averages (Chart 2 and Chart 3).
- SPX is struggling to regain its SMA200, and its key moving averages are now sloping down in SPX (Chart 4).

Wave structure in SPX suggests the potential for a series of 1s & 2s down if SMA200 holds.  (Chart 5, blue 1/2/[i][ii])  Dynamic support is around 2565 and resistance around 2785.
Near term squiggle, 

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Market Timing Update (11/14/18)

At today's low, SPX likely completed a five-down from its 2815.15 high (Chart 1).  A double zigzag-like structure is the alternative (Char2), but a three-wave rebound from today's low and the ES structure tend to support a five-down.

Monday, November 12, 2018

Market Timing Update (11/12/18)

SPX lost its SMA200 again.  Note that both SMA50 and SMA200 are now sloping downward.
The current drop counts well as an expanding diagonal triangle (LDT?) in ES and a regular five in SPX cash.

The following chart show how it fits the bigger picture - see Structure Update (11/9/18) for details.

Friday, November 9, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Structure Update (11/9/18)

SPX retraced to 0.618 of its decline and regained its SMA200 on Wednesday, retested the SMA200 on Friday and rebounded off it.  (Chart 1)
The recent high is likely the first leg of rebound (red [a]) or the wave [c] of an expanded flat (blue 2 or B) (Chart 2).  There are two gaps above and two gaps below.  The nearest dynamic support is around 2733 and the nearest  dynamic resistance is around 2795.