Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Market Timing Update (6/21/17)

[EoD] Stocks-
see yesterday's update for more.

Potential impulse wave decline in the Dow, not confirmed by the SPX.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Market Timing Update (6/20/17)

[EOD] Stocks -
Short term tracking - completed 123/abc from the Apr low, or completed impulse from the May low.
More short term tracking - other variations
A bigger picture

Saturday, June 17, 2017

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (6/16/17 close)

New highs in the Dow and the consolidation in SPX since its high suggest potential extension or a topping process still in progress.

Potential extension - current consolidation is potentially the blue wave 2-down of wave (5)-up in Chart 1.

Topping process - Chart 2.
blue [iv] bullish triangle
red [v] bearish terminal triangle
green [iv] bullish zizag/flat/triangle

Saturday, June 10, 2017

MTU Weekend Ed. - The 2016-2017 rally (6/9/17 close)

A major (interim) high is potentially at hand. Chart 1 tracks the advance in SP500 since its 2016 low. One can now count 7 completed waves, barring an extension at a smaller degree (as discussed below). A 7-wave advance (so far) would suggest that Friday's high is potentially

green (3) of a five-wave advance - Note that wave (3) is the extended wave, with nice alternation between its wave 2 and wave 4. Furthermore, since wave (3) has extended, wave (5) is unlikely to do so.

Under this impulse-wave count for the entire advance, Friday's high is unlikely to be only wave [i] of 5 of (3), given how much NDX has given up.  

green (C) of a zigzag/flat - Wave (A) is much shorter than wave (C) in time and price, which is less ideal.

Under this impulse-wave count for wave (C), Friday's high is unlikely to be only wave [i] of 5 of (3), given how much NDX has given up.

red (C) of a double zigzag - Note that the entire zigzag is well-contained by its channel. However, since wave C of (C) appears too short in both price and time, Friday's high is likely to be only wave [i] of C of (C)

Chart 2 tracks the advance since the June 2016 low to offer additional details.