Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/30/13)

[130pm] SPX update -
Note the large EDT count in Chart 1 (red) if one respects the flash crash bar.

[8am] ES update -
Month end.  See yesterday's am update for discussions on projection in Chart 1.  Chart 2 tracks the squiggle of an incomplete impulse or (nearly) complete double zigzag.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/29/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
See charts for tracking counts. Month end tomorrow.

[820am] ES update -
Tracking counts (color coded). Note the target ares of higher degree tracking counts (Chart 1).
(green wave 5 expanding EDT) 1594.25 (around 1600)
(blue, extended wave 3) 1647.5 caps wave [v] of 3
(red, less extended wave 3) 5=3 at 1635.75

Friday, April 26, 2013

Monthly Outlook Update (4/26/13)

The upswing since the November 2012 low in stocks has extended for another month, but with fair amount of volatility. Over the past month, a new all time high in SP500 was registered, followed by a sharp reversal and an equally sharp rebound.

Chart 1 presents the tracking counts on the post-November advance in SP500.  Chart 2 presents short term tracking counts since its April high.

The blue count in Chart 1 has the five-wave advance complete at the April high. This can be paired with the bearish red count in Chart 2.

The green and red counts in Chart 1 track probable extension. In this case, the rebound from the April low is wave [v] of 3, or wave 5, or final wave C of a double zigzag. These can be paired with the bullish green count in Chart 2 (barring possible truncation).

On balance, the remaining subdivisions in case of probable extension and the net upside potential appear to be limited.  

The sell-off in 10Y UST from its 2012 price high (yield low) is visually a three-wave structure (Chart 3, red), unless the recent rally is wave (c) of an expanded flat wave [ii] (Chart 3, green). As a result, the previously discussed larger degree tracking counts continue to track (Chart 4).

There’s no change to the analysis on the USD index in Monthly Outlook Update (3/18/13). The USD index briefly exceeded its 3/27/13 high on 4/4/13 before pulling back. The USD index has yet to regain its 4/4/13 high (Chart 5 and Chart 6).

Gold crashed in April, in an attempt to fulfill the proposed wave [4] correction, based on our top long term wave count (Chart 7).

Since the crash, gold has regained the blue channel support which is bullish (Chart 8). However, potentially strong overhead resistance is at the green channel (Chart 8). Until the gold regains the green channel support, a retest and even a breach of the lows is probable. The potential retest would conveniently complete a visual nine wave decline (impulse) from its October 2012 high.

 The potential further downside in Gold prices (or upside in JPY vs. USD)  is quite conspicuous in Chart 9 which tracks gold priced in Japanese yen.

Market Timing Update (4/26/13)

[750am]ES update -

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/25/13)

[120pm] SPX update -
wrapping up a five-up, unless extending. see chart.
[910am] ES update -

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/24/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 is wrapping up a five-up from its April low. Near term options are highlighted in Chart 1 where
(red arrow) a high is in
(blue arrow) an EDT wave [v] is unfolding
(green arrow) wave [iv] is still unfolding, to be followed by wave [v]

Chart 2 updates how near term squiggles could fit into the larger tracking counts.

[943am] SPX update -
short term structure. see chart.
[910am] ES update -
Tracking counts in ES. Note that the blue count in Chart 2 assumes the most bullish sequence.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/23/13)

[3pm] SPX update -
tracking counts, see charts

[755am] ES update -
Chart 1 counts a double three (green) or potential impulse (blue) in ES from its April low. Chart 2 shows how ES and SPX counts could fit.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Saturday, April 20, 2013

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull Fake-Out (4/19/13)

In SP500 Breaks Out (4/12/13), we observed that the quality of the breakout to new all time highs in SP500 was unimpressive as (1) the bullish push by short covering from the initial batch of tight stops was weak and (2) volume offered little confirmation. We concluded that new inflows and running wider stops are required to push the index higher.

Soon enough, SP500 tumbled 3.84% from its all time high to Thursday’s low of 1536.03, before finding support at its 50-day moving average (Chart 1). The sell-off leaves us with the following top three tracking counts:

[1] The top is in and the Hope Rally is over (Chart 1 red, Chart 2 red-alt & black to (C)), since all necessary waves (to as small as hourly bars) to count the Hope Rally as a double three are present.

[2] A major top is in. A larger correction to just below the 200-day moving average (say the 1425-1450 area in SP500) is probable before another ABC attempt to breakout. The proposed correction counts as

(a) a larger wave (X) in a triple-three with respect to the 2009 low or
(b) a wave (D) in an EDT with respect to the 2009 low (Chart 2 black) or
(c) a smaller wave (X) in a triple three with respect to the 2011 low (Chart 1)

[3] A minor pullback is over (or nearly over), with an immediate advance to complete a double-three or extended-five with respect to the November 2011 low (Chart 1 red-alt). This bullish scenario is on the table because the sell-off to date can be counted as a double three or an EDT (Chart 3 and Chart 4). Additional price action will help clarify the likelihood of this scenario.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/19/13)

[640am] ES update -
Top near term tracking counts (Chart 2) -
(green) completed double three.
(red) completed 1/A-down, incomplete flat 2/B (triangle?)-up
(black) incomplete wedge (LDT/EDT)-down, still missing E-down.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/18/13)

[140pm] SPX update -
If the green wedge fails to the down side, note the potential for a thrust out the red triangle to complete wave 5-down of an impulse or the 2nd wave c-down of a double three. See chart.

[8am] ES update -
Note the bearish triangle option which fits near term support and resistance well.