Thursday, March 31, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/31/16)

[EOD] Stocks update -
SP500 retests the green line, wrapping up Q1 up about 10 index points. The immediate gap below is likely to be filled this week. See charts.

[155pm] ES update -
overnight and morning wedges. (keep an eye on potential small-degree 5th wave failure too.)

[115pm] SPX update -
Potential small degree bullish/bearish triangles. See charts.

[840am] ES update -
Potential small-degree LDT in ES. See chart.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/30/16)

[EOD] Stocks-

[1125am] SPX update-
tracking and squiggles. See charts.

[815am] ES update-
ES to gap the cash index at the open.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/29/16)

[135pm] SPX update -
Near term lines continue to influence SPX. See charts.

[10am] SPX update -
2 potential kisses. See charts.

[8am] ES update -
Potentially targeting the green line. See chart.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/28/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
potential bear flag, kissing prior support. See charts.

[130pm] SPX update -
Squiggles. See chart.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - 2nd Major Retest (3/24/16 close)

As discussed in  Gap filled, potential pullback next (3/18/16), SP500 did pull back this past week.

The decline represents the 2nd major retest for the current upswing. Will it be as successful as the first retest? See Chart 1.

If MA200 and the prior topping channel fail to offer support,  lower targets would be at play such as a minor gap around 1980, MA50 around 1940-50,  trendline around 1910-20 and a major gap around 1870. 

Chart 2 presents the key bullish and bearish tracking scenarios for the current upswing.

Thursday, March 24, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/24/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX is retesting MA200 as discussed in the weekend commentary. See charts.

[1045am] SPX update-
Tracking counts and squiggles. see charts.

[720am] ES update-

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/23/16)

[EOD] Stocks
A three-wave drop in SPX from it's high (Chart 1), stopping right at support (Chart 2-green and blue lines, Chart 3). The immediately bullish scenario would be an expanded triangle (Chart 4, Chart 2 blue lines). Bearish scenarios would be a nested 1s/2s, a flat/triangle, or an LDT. See charts.

[1055am/1231pm] SPX update-

[815am] ES update-

Saturday, March 19, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Gap Filled, Potential Pullback Next (3/18/16 close)

SPX filled a prominent downward gap around 2040 this past week, following the dovish FOMC statement and press conference (Chart 1).

Curiously, the current upswing resembles the Sep-Nov rebound in terms of the strong momentum and tight channeling (Chart 1 red channels).

Note that the current upswing is also only points away from reaching equality with the Sep-Nov rebound (Chart 1, green lines).

Furthermore, if this upswing is an impulse wave, it is wrapping up wave three (Chart 2 blue iii) or wave five (Chart 2 green v). If this upswing takes on a corrective form, it may be wrapping up a triple zigzag (Chart 2 red) or a simple zigzag (Chart 2 gray).

A pullback to retest (at least) the 200-day moving average looks likely. Note that the strong momentum has also left two unfilled upward gaps below along the way.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/17/16)

[EOD Stocks-
SPX filled a key gap today.

[1145am] SPX update-
All subdivisions of a 1/2/3 or ABC appears to be in (almost in). See charts.

[815am] ES update-
ES is potentially wedging or wrapping up an expanded flat pullback (as discussed yesterday). See chart.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Market Timing Update (3/16/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX broke above and closed above a key resistance cluster (Chart 1), but with the potential completion of the post-FOMC thrust (Chart 2). Can SPX stay above prior resistance and subdivide higher to filled the overhead gap?

On the bullish side, perhaps an expanded flat wave iv is in progress (Chart 3 and Chart 4 gray). On the bearish side, a triple zigzag is concluding (Chart 4 red).

[130pm] SPX update -
If stocks wish to pull back from here, one would have a nice set up in hindsight - rejection at a key resistance cluster (Chart 1) and potential island reversal (Chart 2) too. FOMC announcement and press conference is coming up. Time is running out.