Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/30/14)

[EOD] Stocks-

[1120 am] SPX update-
squiggles and more. see charts.

[710 am] ES update-
Month end. FOMC policy announcement. New moon yesterday. See chart.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/29/14)

SP500 is at near term resistance (Chart 1). Squiggle count suggest a small-degree wave c-down or a gap open above the resistance (Chart 2). After-hours price action appears to support the former scenario.

[715am] ES update-

Monday, April 28, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/28/14)

[210pm] SPX update-
See Potential Support (4/25/14) for discussions.
[705am] ES update-
ES seeks to find support around MA50. See charts.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Potential Support (4/25/14 Close)

The Dow Transports managed another all-time high this past week (Chart 1), after the SP500 advance-decline line had done the same the week prior (Chart 2). These developments are consistent with the scenario of a new high in broader stock market indexes. Chart 3 updates our ending diagonal triangle scenario in SP500.

SP500 fell swiftly from an earnings-driven exhaustion surge in overnight futures Friday morning. The current decline is likely a corrective pullback, which has already sending many indexes to their near term support. The coming Monday sees a window for a potential near term low.

In terms of wave counts, the current decline in stocks counts best as a wave B or a wave 4. The sell-off is so far a corrective three-wave structure. See Chart 4.

At the same time, indexes are approaching potential near term support. Consider the following.

[a] SP500 is retesting its 50-day moving average of 1858. The index closed at 1863 Friday. See Chart 3 above. 
[b] SP500 has now retraced a fib-0.382 of its advance since the April 15th low.  See Chart 4 above.
[c] To the extent that an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is developing, SP500 is now in a zone where the right shoulder is likely to bottom. See Chart 4 above. Note that the size of the IHS is about 60 index points, which hints at a respectful overthrow when SP500 does breakout to the upside.
[d] The Dow Transports are retesting its breakout trend line, which may turn into a near term support on a successful retest. See Chart 1 above.

Last but not least, it’s prudent to keep in mind that on the bearish side
[a] Friday’s high would be interpreted as the top of wave 2 or wave B based on the bearish count.
[b] There is an unfilled gap around 1845 in SP500.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/25/14)

[1020am] SPX update-
Retesting still in progress, see charts.

[715am] ES update-
Retesting still in progress, see charts.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/24/14)

[1140am] SPX update-
A successful near term retest of potential support. Wait and see how far it can carry.
[820am] ES update-

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/23/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
SP500 cash index has been retesting the red line as potential support (Chart 1). The after-hours action in ES appears to suggest a successful retest (Chart 2).

[715 am] ES update-
ES retesting prior resistance. Tracking [i]/[ii]/[iii]-blue and [a]/[b]/[c]-red of an orthodox low mid-April. See charts.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/22/14)

[2pm]SPX update-
SP500 broke above the 2nd resistance area(red line), now approaching the 3rd resistance area (purple line), followed by the 4rd resistance area (green line). The advance from the April low has produced two unclosed gaps, one at the 1st resistance area and another at the 2nd resistance area. Transports made a new all-time high today. See charts here and previous updates for additional discussion.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Thursday, April 17, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - No bearish confirmation (T+1), but at resistance (4/17/14)

This past week was the first week after the "timed top", the T+1-th week. As we observed in It's TIME(T-0), but at potential support (4/11/14), "we look for a convincing breach of support for bearish confirmation and also entertain the possibility of an immediate new high." and "odds appear to favor a new high, perhaps allow SP500 to complete a potential ending diagonal triangle off the October 2013 low, which is suitable for a top."

Price action this past week did not offer a bearish confirmation, leaving room for the ending diagonal triangle which requires a bullish confirmation (Chart 1). In the meantime, we note a few potentially bullish vs bearish technical factors below. 

[bullish] A failed head-and-shoulders pattern (Chart 2). After briefly dipping below the neck line, SP500 rebounded and regained prior range. Such price action is likely bullish and hints at a new high beyond 1920.

[bullish] The advance-decline line on SP500 is now leading the SP500 index, making an all-time high following the recent rebound in stocks (Chart 3). This counts as another hint at a new high.

[bearish] Price is at near term resistance (Chart 2).

[bearish] The sell-off from the nominal high in SP500 may be a (truncated) leading diagonal wave 1/A-down. A wave 2/B rebound could be nearly over (Chart 2, red count).

Let's see now the market delivers.

Market Timing Update (4/17/14)

[715am] ES update-

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/16/14)

[7am] ES update -
ES regaining prior range and MA50 (Chart 1). A retest of/retrace towards the breakout area appears likely on the squiggles (Chart 2). See charts.