Friday, April 11, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - It’s TIME (T-0), but at potential support (4/11/14)

This past week is the “timed top” based on our timing model. See Chart 1 and our previous weekly commentaries. SP500 did plunge 4.4% from its all-time high of 1897.28 made on April 4th, 2014.

As bearish as this past week’s stock market performance is, the sell-off from nominal highs in many benchmark indexes is so far corrective and the broader market is also approaching potential near term support levels.
[1] The decline in SP500 from its all-time high is so far three waves, and that in NDX from its nominal high is an overlapping seven-wave structure. 
[2] Near term support levels for SP500 are 1810 and 1760. Friday's low of 1814.36 is close to this immediate support.  Furthermore,   SP500 is also approaching the potential blue trend line support in Chart 1.

Thus, we look for a convincing breach of support for bearish confirmation and also entertain the possibility of an immediate new high which calls for an extension in time to T+1 and potentially beyond the conventional +/-1-week tolerance window.

Odds appear to favor a new high, perhaps allow SP500 to complete a potential ending diagonal triangle off the October 2013 low, which is suitable for a top.   Under this scenario, the recent drop is wave [d] of the proposed EDT  as outlined by the green labels and trend lines in Chart 1.  Of course, the market will ultimately decide.