Friday, August 25, 2017

MTU Weekend Ed. - Primary Trend Line Test (8/25/17)

SPX is probing the green primary trend line (Chart 1).  This trend line is likely to break in coming days/weeks as the Midcap index, Russell2000, Wilshire 5000 and Transports have already broken their corresponding lines.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Market Timing Update (8/22/17)

SPX is testing its MA50 from below, closed above it today.
See the Weekend Update for details.

Monday, August 21, 2017

Market Timing Update (8/21/18)

[EOD] ES -
A rebound is likely in progress. See chart. See weekend update for details.

Friday, August 18, 2017

MTU Weekend Ed. - Correction (8/18/17)

We continue to track the all-time-high in SPX as wave [3], [5] or [C] from its Feb 2016 low. A meaningful high is likely in place. A correction of (at least) the post-election rally is likely in progress.  Bullish alternatives at smaller degrees exist (see below).

On the weekly chart, SPX touched the green base channel line as a result of the current sell-off (Chart 1). A rebound to the gray line is possible/probable, taking into account of the squiggles in Chart 2.

Current dynamic support levels (points for a potential rebound) are 2423, 2345, 2283 and 2218.

Bullish potentials at the two "smallest" degrees are shown in Chart 3 (green 4) and Chart 4 (purple (iv)*).

Monday, August 14, 2017

Market Timing Update (8/14/17)

[EOD] ES -
ES presents a potential 5-down(or 3-down) 3-up structure. Targeting today's high of 2466.50 or tomorrow around 2471.25 (12pm-2pm).

Saturday, August 12, 2017

MTU Weekend Ed - Meaningful High (8/11/17 close)

SPX, once again, presents us with a potentially meaningful high (Chart 1).

We track the recent ATH as the end of a three (gray [C], blue and green [3]) or a five (red [5]) since the 2016 low.

Expect a meaningful pullback at least 2350 for wave [4]-down or much lower for a wave-two pullback at one larger degree or a reversal.

Expect a substantial rise in actual volatility in SPX if the spike in VIX is sustainable.  Otherwise VIX may be overbought near term. 

Current dynamic support levels (points for a potential rebound) are 2422, 2343, 2280 and 2215.

A near term bullish alternative interprets this past week's selloff as wave c-down of a (running?) flat wave (iv)* as outlined by the purple count  (or ii-down of the red (v)-up, not shown, if (v)-up decides to extend). A decline below the horizontal purple line invalidates this possibility.

MID broke its base trend line as noted by Mkt Man, suggesting wave [3] is complete.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Market Timing Update (8/10/17)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX closed below its SMA50, with SMA200 a potential near term target. Key near term bullish count is a (running?) flat wave (iv)* down (red-alt in Chart 1). Other counts look bearish. See charts.