Thursday, May 26, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/26/16)

Next Update will be around mid-June

[EOD] Stocks-
Inside day, consolidation above support trend line. See chart and yesterday's update on the bigger picture development

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/25/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
The swift upswing since mid-May has now brought SPX to an interesting juncture, i.e., the 3rd attempt to break above the bearish base channel from the ATH. See Chart 1.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/18/17)

[EOD] Stocks -
Further OPEX week volatility on Fed minutes. SPX caught up with other indexes and saw a lower low, but potentially wedging (and with positive divergence on the daily chart). See charts for tracking counts and the bigger picture.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/17/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
OPEX week volatility. See charts for tracking counts and the bigger picture.

Monday, May 16, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/16/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Tracking today's upswing as:
pink wave [a] of a potential expanding triangle ( see weekend commentary), or blue wave [a] of a larger rebound.
green wave [i] of a fresh upswing.
red wave c of and expanded flat.
See chart.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Pullback Scenarios (5/13/16 close)

We continue to track either the small or the larger ABC pullback highlighted in Chart 1. With respect to short term trajectories, bursts of 3-wave swings in May hint at potential triangles. The pink bearish expanding triangle in Chart 2 looks particularly interesting (partially due to the fact that other indexes have made lower lows already).

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/12/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Yesterday's inside bar in SPX saw a break out to the downside today, odds appear to favor a lower low if the breakout holds.

In addition to the tracking scenarios from the high in Chart 1, Chart 2 highlights a larger bearish triangle given the choppy three-wave swings in recent days. See charts.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/11/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX was rejected decisively by the latest resistance zone (Chart 1 and yesterday's EOD update), partially filling yesterday's upward gap (Chart 2) and resulting in an inside bar.

Bearish scenarios track a fresh downswing (Chart 2 red-alt, blue and gray). Bullish scenarios track a B-wave pullback (Chart 2 red), and/or the right shoulder of an IHS which potentially targets new recovery highs (say Chart 3, gray wave C-up).

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/10/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX gapped above resistance, filled a downward gap, did a Fib618 retrace, and is in another resistance zone. See charts.

[725am] ES update -
An overnight attempt in ES to gap SPX above resistance. See chart.

Monday, May 9, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/9/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
Tracking and squiggles on SPX. See charts.

[205pm] SPX update-
Tracking and squiggles. See chart.

Friday, May 6, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - ABC Tracking (5/6/16)

SPX dropped from its April high smartly just as sentiment was cheering a potential new all-time-high (Chart 1). As Chart 1 indicates, we are tracking the current pullback as the gray wave B-down or the initial drop of a much larger blue ABC structure.

While the pullback has overall momentum (Chart 1), its internal wave structure is rather choppy and has wedges at several degrees(Chart 2). Is it done? Maybe (Chart 2 green, red), Maybe not (Chart 2 blue, red-alt).

Market Timing Update (5/6/16)

[1110am] SPX update -
SPX appears poised for a rebound. See chart for squiggles from the high.

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/4/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX is wedging at a couple of degrees. See charts.

[135pm] SPX update -
Squiggles off the high. See chart.

[905am] ES update -
A cluster of support gave way to continued selling in ES. An expanding LD down targets a level below 2029. An upward expanded flat points to a rebound toward 2080. See charts and short term tracking.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/3/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX continues to probe all potential support levels (Chart 1). Multiple options on the squiggles (Chart 2).

[745am] ES update-
One more attempt at testing the blue line. See chart.

Monday, May 2, 2016

Market Timing Update (5/2/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
[740am] ES update -
ES is currently rebounding off the blue and pink lines, with overhead resistance around the red and black lines (Chart 1). A three--wave decline off the high at the moment (Chart 2).