Friday, October 31, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/31/14)

[330pm] SPX update-
A potential A-B-C(EDT) pullback from this morning's Halloween high. See charts.  In addition, SP500 the cumulative AD line appears to have made a higher high today.

[10am] SPX update-
Five unfilled gaps in SPX since its October low. Charts present tracking counts and squiggles. SP500 cash index is likely poised for new highs as ES did overnight.

[735am] ES update-
Month End. Futures delivered a fresh all-time high overnight in response to further Japan QE. USD responded as well. ES is likely wrapping up the blue wave 3 (red wave [iii] of C) or green wave 5 as shown. See charts.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/30/14)

[310pm] SPX update -
The pullback in SPX is retesting the neckline as highlighted. see charts.

[12pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts and squiggles. Squiggles track a (green) inverse HS, a (red) EDT, a (blue) post triangle thrust. See charts.

[850am] ES update -
Tracking counts. See chart.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/29/14)

[225pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts post FOMC. See chart.

[1125am] SPX update -
tracking counts and squiggles. see charts.
[805am] ES update -

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/28/14)

[1030am] SPX/NDX update -
post triangle thrusts. see charts.  Transports at a new record high.

[715am] ES update -
SPX is finally over MA50 with ES wedging and SPX likely in a post-triangle thrust when it opens. See charts.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/27/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
An inside day for SP500. A potential 4th wave consolidation in progress. A break below the ascending support line (green) is likely bearish and the gap around 1930 would be a potential target. See chart.
While the MA50 remains illusive for SP500, Transports and NDX appear to be gunning for a new high. 

[1205pm] SPX update-
potential green triangle wave [iv]. See chart.

[820am] ES update-

Sunday, October 26, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Kiss, Triple Top or New High (10/24/14 Close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

Our suspicion about a potential deep retrace proved to be helpful (Technical Damage (10/17/14)). SP500 has retraced 72.8% of the entire 18-day selloff in 1/3 of the time, regained its 200-day moving average and is within 2 index points of regaining its 50-day moving average.

Here are the key questions at the moment.
[1] What is the upside potential of this upswing before (at least) a meaningful pullback?
[2] Is a new record high in sight before the October low is at risk?
[3] How does it fit into the longer term tracking counts?

*** near term tracking ***
Chart 1 tracks the rebound from the October low in SP500. Two potential inverse head-and-shoulders patterns point to the 1970s and the 1980s. The pending high is counted as

[the blue wave [b]-up of a small-degree expanded flat or a triangle] where the first up leg of the rebound completed on October 22nd and a sideways pullback is now in progress. This scenario offers the potential of a new record high or a triple top.

[the green wave 3] where the rebound is a regular five-wave impulse attempting new record highs. It's also prudent to allow for a failed impulse in this case.

[the red wave C] where the rebound is a corrective ABC structure with wave C being an ending diagonal triangle. In this case, wave C should be capped by 1984. A retest of the October low is next.

*** new record high ***
At them moment, stocks are negotiating some serious resistance. For example, SP500 is facing headwinds from [1] the 50-day moving average, [2] a potential terminal EDT (Chart 1 red), and [3] the April-August prior support trendline (Chart 2, kiss and goodbye?).

A new record high on this run is possible if the blue and the green counts in Chart 1 play out. Note also that while SP500 is 2.75% away from a new hgh at Friday's high, the Transports are only 1.69% below a fresh record high.

Chart 3 (MMM) and Chart 4 (GD) shows two individul stocks with (very) similar recent price structures as that of SP500 are now making new highs. Readers can check similar actions in other SP500 components such as ABBV, FISV, GILD, LEG, LOW, UNH, and UNP.

 *** long term tracking ***
Chart 5 presents the long term scenarios since the 2009 low. If SP500 turns down (meaningfully) from current levels, the September high is likely the black wave [C] or the red wave [3]. If stocks deliver a new record high near term, the October low is likely the blue wave (4) or wave (A) of the red wave [4].

Friday, October 24, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/24/14)

[220pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts: green (no rush impulse), blue (another potential impulse), red (ABC with C an EDT). In addition, a smaller-degree IHS potentially developing. See chart.

[810am] ES update -

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/23/14)

[905pm] ES update -
ES reacts to NY ebola headline. Tracking counts. See chart.

[EOD] Stocks-
Stocks are negotiating the primary resistance trendline line and the MA50 (Chart 1). SPX turned down a few points below its MA50 today, which might be too convenient. It's possible that we have not seen the end of this leg of advance -something like the green count in Chart 2?

[810am] ES update-
ES is making another attempt to breach the initial bearish trend line and the MA50 (chart 1) to complete a potential 5th wave which should be capped at 1978.25 if wave three is not extending (Chart 2).

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/22/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX is retesting its Oct 2nd low. Let's see if that's still of any significance. See charts.

[1240pm] SPX update-
SPX bumping between the potential red TL resistance and blue TL support, in a potential small-degree 4th wave. See charts.

[815am] ES update-
ES is fighting against the initial downward treandline (Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks squiggles from the Oct low.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/21/14)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 - Wave 4 rebound in a regular five-wave decline is rejected today as SPX also broke above its Oct 2nd low. Furthermore, RUT broke above its early Oct high. Transports and MidCaps are poised to do so.
Chart 2 - Tracking counts on SPX from the high and low.
Chart 3 - SPX squiggles on the advance from the low.

[1050am] SPX update -
SP500 also overlapped its Oct 2nd low a moment ago. There are two unfilled upward gaps since the Oct low. See charts and squiggles.

[750am] ES update -
ES advanced after successfully retested the neckline of a potential IHS. See tracking count off the nominal low. The proposed small degree 5th wave could potentially wedge.