Wednesday, December 31, 2014

2014 Weekly Commentary

* Santa Rally(12/19/14)
* Seasonality(12/12/14)
* Price and Time(12/5/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(11/28/14)
* Gaps and Triangles Galore(11/21/14)
* Topping Squiggles(11/14/14)
* Terminal Move(11/7/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(10/31/14)
* Kiss, Triple Top or New High(10/24/14)
* Technical Damage(10/17/14)
* At the 2nd Turn Window(10/10/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(10/3/14)
* Terminal Move 4(9/26/14)
* Terminal Move 3(9/19/14)
* Terminal Move 2(9/12/14)
* Terminal Move(9/5/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(8/29/14)
* Extended Move (8/22/14)
* Tracking the Rebound (8/15/14)
* Rebound, Gap Fill(8/8/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update (8/1/14)
* Seeing the forest for the trees(7/25/14)
* Short Term Update(7/18/14)
* Topped?(7/11/14)
* Topping Scenarios(7/3/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(6/27/14)
* Tireless bull, Exhaustion, or Expanded Consolidation(6/20/14)
* Near Term Scenarios(6/23/14)
* Proper Overthrow(6/6/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(5/30/14)
* Selling Opportunity Likely Approaching (5/23/14)
* Selling Opportunity or Bear Trap (5/16/14)
* Fractured Markets and Potential Fractals (5/9/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(5/2/14)
* Potential Support (4/25/14)
* No bearish confirmation(T+1),but at resistance (4/17/14)
* It's TIME (T-0),but at potential support(4/11/14)
* It's TIME (T-1) (4/4/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(3/28/14)
* Posturing, T-(n-2) Weeks (3/21/14)
* Getting There, T-(n-1) Weeks (3/14/14)
* T-n Weeks (3/7/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update (2/28/14)
* Short Term Update (2/21/14)
* Overthrow, 2014(2/14/14)
* Short Term Update(2/7/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(1/31/14)
* It's TIME(1/24/14)
* Overthrow(1/17/14)
* Short Term Update(1/10/14)
* Monthly Outlook Update(1/3/14)
* 2014 Outlook (12/29/13)

Market Timing Update (12/31/14)

[EOD] Stocks-

[830am] ES update-
Year End. See chart for tracking counts.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/30/14)

[955am] SPX update -

[925am] ES update -
Once again, it appears that the 2078/79 gap in SPX cash is likely to be filled today. See chart for tracking counts on ES.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/29/14)

[1135am] SPX update -
Tracking counts and squiggles. See charts.

[845am] ES update -
It appears that the 2078/79 gap in SPX cash is likely to be filled today. See chart for tracking counts on ES.

Friday, December 26, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/26/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
Note the potential analogy to the pre-December pullback as marked (see chart). Perhaps waiting for transports to catch up with an ATH.

[850am] ES update-

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/24/14)

[EOD] Stocks-

[1120am] SPX update-
Tracking counts and squiggles. See charts.

[920am] ES update-
consecutive ascending triangles? gapped up resistance yesterday, not today. See chart. Let's monitor the cash market price actions.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/23/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
New high. There is a tiny-degree five wave decline in SPX form the new ATH into the close. Initial decline or end of an expanded flat? See tracking counts.

[1055am] SPX update-
Tracking counts and squiggles (blue, red, green). See charts.

[9am] ES update-<
Upward breakout from an ascending triangle in ES. If it holds, there will be a gap open in SP500 above the previous ATH which has been the resistance over the past few trading sessions. See chart.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/22/14)

[230pm] SPX update-

[820am] ES update-
potential 4th wave (triangle? flat?). see chart.

Friday, December 19, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Santa Rally (12/19/14)

Stocks followed the typical December seasonality (Seasonality(12/12/14)) and staged a Santa Rally, netting 4.97% for the SP-500 index and 4.73% for the Dow when measured from the December lows to Friday's high. Moreover, the small-cap Russell 2000 index achieved a higher high, hinting that other indexes are likely to follow and deliver new record highs. See Chart 1 and Chart 2.

If the market follows the historical pattern into the next week, the week of the 4th Friday in December is even more bullish as discussed last week. See Chart 3 and Chart 4.

We track the current rebound (tentatively) as wave (c)-up of [e]-up of the proposed expanding diagonal triangle in SP500. Under this interpretation, the December low is wave (b)-down of wave [e]-up (Chart 5). An alternative scenario is that wave (b)-down is not complete, a wave c-down of wave (b)-down to retest the December low should do the job.

The latter scenario would "buy" the market some time to finished the large expanding EDT in the March/April time frame discussed before. In both scenarios, current upside target remains at a marginal high above 2102.

Chart 6 and Chart 7 present the two scenarios at lower time frames. The blue count tracks the immediately bullish scenario and the green count tracks a potential retest of the December low.

Market Timing Update (12/19/14)

[740 am] ES update -
ES makes a new record high overnight, as hinted by RUT yesterday. See chart for tracking counts from the low.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Market Timing Update (12/18/14)

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 closed solidly above the neckline. Price actions in RUT suggests new highs in SP500 is likely in sight. See charts.

[1130am] SPX/RUT update -
Is RUT gunning for a new high (and the rest of the pack as well)? (Chart 1) Is SP500 retesting the red neckline? (Chart 2) Tracking the rebound (Chart 3).

[730am] ES update -
A solid gap above the Sep high in ES (Chart 1 and Chart 2) and the neckline in SPX cash - this type of overnight resistance gap has happened many times before. The overnight rise likely counts as the green wave 3 (or C) as highlighted yesterday. See Chart 3.