Friday, September 19, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Terminal Move 3 (9/19/14)

...draft in progress, subject to change ...

SP500 recovered from its mid-September low smartly and delivered another record high this past week. Based on the squiggles of this move, Friday's high is either the end of an EDT (Chart 1, red) or wave three of an impulse wave (Chart 1, blue). Odds appear to favor the latter (with the exception of a potential B-wave, see discussions below). These possibilities are more conspicuous in the wave structure of NDX.

Depending on whether this past week's move is part of the upswing since the August low, we track several interesting near term scenarios. See Chart 2.

[red] Wave 5 off the August low topped at Friday's high. The August low is likely at risk on the next downswing.

[blue] Wave 5 off the August low is incomplete. Wave [v] of 5 is next, targeting the 2030 area.

[black] Wave 4 off the August low is tracing out a lengthy expanding triangle. Wave [e] pullback is next, which is likely to breach 1980. Wave 5-up that follows could fail as any move above 2005 would satisfy the minimum requirement.

[green] The upswing off the August low is extending. Friday's high is wave B-up of an expanded flat or a triangle consolidation before a fresh upswing surfaces. Wave C-down of this consolidation is next.