It's a good time to review the higher-degree tracking once more.
Short term, a head-and-shoulders pattern successfully played out over the past week. We are looking at the green [c]-up or a reversal (see the higher-degree tracking above) with a potentially failure in the blue (c)-up of [e]-up.
The head-and-shoulders target in SPX was met during the session, followed by a hard retest of the neckline, and closed below it (Chart 1).
The green wave [b]-down is complete or likely bearish expanding DT (blue) wave [i]-down is still in progress.
At a larger degree, SPX bounced from an area of multiple support (Chart 2).
From a time perspective, the green (b) wave correction looks better for this potential expanding diagonal triangle. See Chart 1 & 2.
Since the price requirement has been met, the potential EDT could have ended at the recent high.
Watch the potential HS and monitor for follow-through or failure.
The potential expanding DT is still tracking and is close to satisfying the minimum time requirement.
SPX cash did not overlap 3645.99 as anticipated (ES futures did overnight), but made a new ATH after touching its SMA50. Chart 1.
The larger tracking structure has survived. Near term, instead of a previously labeled converging wedge (red), we may have an expanding one (blue). Chart 2.
The minimum price requirement of 3892.86 was met at Friday's high of 3894.56. However, the expanding wedge would work better to have another down-up swing to satisfy the time guideline, making the current peak wave a-up of wave [e]-up of this potential expanding wedge. Time will tell.
Potential 2nd reaction at the underside of a prior wedge. Today's high in NDX (cash) is 2 index points shy of an ATH. The Dow remains relatively weaker.
