Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/30/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
A potential low hinted by squiggles is confirmed by today's upswing. SPX is now approaching the first of a series of overhead resistance areas. See charts.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/29/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
The Aug low in SP500 is effectively breached with today's low only 4.9 index points away. Squiggles point to a potential low either today or tomorrow morning, a month-end date. Let's see how things unfold overnight.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/28/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
MidCaps and Russell200 have breached their August lows, will the rest of benchmark indexes follow? (Chart 1). The downswing in SP500 from the Sep rebound high presents a potential EDT (bullish) or LDT (bearish) (Chart 2).

Chart 3 and Chart 4 update key bullish and bearish scenarios since the August low.

Friday, September 25, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Higher Lows and Potential Retest Low (?) (9/25/15)

Since the August low, SP500 has been able to make higher lows (Chart 1). In addition, a five-wave upswing (new uptrend, degree to be determined)is potentially present since this past week's retest low (Chart 2).

Chart 3 and Chart 4 present bullish and bearish scenarios since the August low.

Market Timing Update (9/25/15)

[935am/10am] ES update -
Tracking counts and squiggles. See charts.

[745am] ES update -

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/24/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
It's interesting that the early September retest low (1903.07 in SP500, Chart 1), which is potential orthodox low, is holding for now in most indexes with the exception of RUT. The rebound from today's low is a 5th wave shy of being a well-formed five-wave upswing (Chart 2)

Bull and bear scenarios from the August low. You Pick (Chart 3 and 4).

[920am] ES update -
ES wrapping up a 3-wave drop 9so far) from its Sep rebound high as DAX retests its Aug low wrapping up a 3-wave drop (so far) from its Apr high. See charts.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Monday, September 21, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/21/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
Primary bullish count (Chart 1, blue). Key bearish counts (Chart 2). See Breakout Failure (9/18/15) for discussions.

Friday, September 18, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Breakout Failure (9/18/15)

After a series of inside bars on the weekly chart, SP500 broke out upwards this past week leading into the FOMC announcement, but swiftly and meaningfully pulled back(Chart 1).

From a bearish perspective, the rebound could be over on the breakout failure (Chart 1), a kiss-and-goodbye with respect to a key overhead resistance (Chart 2), and a potential ABC-X-ABC wave structure since the August low (Chart 3, subject to potentially one more blue wave C advance, which is not required).

All is not lost from a bullish perspective either.  An unfilled gap remains above this past week's high (Chart 2).  A number of odd-looking bullish counts since the August low catch one's attention (Chart 4). 

[red - this one is an interesting possiblity] An LDT off a potential orthodox low .

[green] A disproportionate impulse wave whose wave [iv] triangle is just unfolding.

[blue] An imperfect impulse wave whose wave [iv] marginally overlaps wave [i] in this volatile period.

[gray] An odd shaped LDT.

On a higher time frame, one observes that the post-FOMC pullback could be an attempt to probe the purple trendline as well as the green mid-channel line for potential support (Chart 5).  Will support hold? 

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/16/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 delivered a marginal new rebound high, defeating a number of inside bars and breaking out upwards (Chart 1).

Moment of truth is approaching, with the Fed announcement tomorrow a likely trigger.

Is this a fake breakout suggested by price patterns (Chart 2 red & blue, Chart 3 red & gray) and overbought near term technicals?

Or Are new highs or a deeper rebound in sight (Chart 2 green, Chart 3 blue)?

[850am] ES update -

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/15/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 is at a resistance area and appears short term overbought. See chart.

[745am] ES update -


Friday, September 11, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Inside Bars and Triangles (9/11/15 close)

Indecisive price actions produced another (weekly) inside bar in SP500 this past week (Chart 1 and Inside Bar(9/4/15)). The configuration of these bars start to hint at a triangle. Is it bearish or bullish?

A bearish triangle would be counted as a wave four or wave X at this juncture. It is also more likely under normal circumstances and the most straightforward interpretation.

A bullish triangle would be treated as a terminal wave five. It is also not uncommon since the 2009 bottom.

Chart 2 details these two potential triangles.

[red] The bearish triangle is a lengthy wave C following wave A-up and wave B-down since the August low.

[blue] The bullish triangle is a small degree wave [c]-down of wave 2/B-down following a wave 1/A-up off an orthodox low.

[gray] Yet another bullish triangle.

Market Timing Update (9/11/15)

[740am] ES update -
Tracking counts since the May high. See Chart.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/9/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
Breakout failure across the board (Chart 1). Is the sell-off into the close wave E of a bullish triangle (Chart 2 green) or is the rebound high in (Chart 2 red)?

[730m] ES update -
Overnight advance in ES to gap the cash index up at the open. See chart.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/8/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
Higher lows, but not yet higher highs in SP500/DJ30 despite the rally today. See Chart 1 and Inside Bar(9/4/15) for details. Smaller-caps did slightly better. The post-crash rebound highs remain intact at the moment (Chart 2).

[840am] ES update -
Tracking counts from the August low. See chart.