Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/30/15)

[235pm] SPX update -
SP500 bounced off its SMA200 and is now fighting the overhead trendline resistance. See chart.

[755 am] ES update -
Month End. See charts for tracking counts, lines and squiggles.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/29/15)

[EOD] Stocks -


[820am] ES update -
See charts for tracking count and squiggles.  See Risk Premium (6/26/15) for details.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Risk Premium (6/26/15 Close)

U.S. stocks pulled back steadily this past week, driving SP500 below its 50-day moving average.

A potential five-wave decline from the rebound high of 2129.87 in SP500 to Friday's low of 2095.38 (Chart 1, red) points to lower prices ahead.  Current event risks  (e.g. Greece, China) and valuations are sympathetic with the price turn.

However, the pullback in SP500 so far is likely an elongated flat based on price actions in SP500 in conjunction with other benchmark indexes (Chart 1, blue) - note the asynchronous highs and lows among indexes in Chart 1.  Wave C of this potential flat is 3 times wave A in size. If this is the case, the current pullback is wave (b)-down of [e]-up in our base case scenario (See New All Time High (6/19/15), A Decision Point (6/12/15)).

* In light of the gap down in futures on 6/28/15 over Greece, if futures does not sufficiently recover overnight,  our base case scenario should be tweaked to reflect the possibility that the current pullback serves to complete wave [d]-down.  See Chart 2.  

Meanwhile, VIX could be completing a bullish triangle if the mid-June high is not challenged.  See Chart 3.  Let's see if the priced-in risk premium pays off soon or is only an initial deposit.   

Friday, June 26, 2015

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/25/15)

[250pm] SPX update -
SP500 probes the breakout line (red, Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks squiggles.

[9am] ES update -
potential triangle, see chart.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/24/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX probes MA50 today, correcting the recent upswing. Meanwhile, Transports and the Dow probe their respective breakout trend line.  See charts.

[1225pm] SPX update -

[905am] ES update -
ABC pullback, could be a W at one larger degree. See chart.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Friday, June 19, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - New All Time High (6/19/15)

The SP400 mid-cap index, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 2000 small-cap index hit new all-time highs this past week (Chart 1). Notably, the Nasdaq Composite Index has finally exceeded its Y2K peak. Odds appear to favor new record highs in the senior indexes.

In terms of seasonality, however, there could be a sideways/downward tendency for the rest of the month.  See Chart S7 and Chart S8 in Monthly Outlook Update (5/29/15).

In A Decision Point (6/12/15), we outlined a base-case bullish scenario, an alternative bullish scenario and an alternative bearish scenario. Chart 2, 3 and 4 offer an update. Please see A Decision Point (6/12/15) for discussion.

base-case bullish scenario
alternative bullish scenario
alternative bearish scenario

Market Timing Update (6/19/15)

[1045am] SPX/MID/RUT update -
New ATH in MID (Chart 1) and RUT. SPX short-term tracking counts (Chart 2).

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/18/15)

[1210pm] Stocks update -
New all-time high in Nasdaq Composite. Transports and the Dow likely back in sync (Chart 2). Tracking SPX (Chart 1).

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/17/15)

[EOD] Stocks -

[1245pm] SPX update -
Pre-FOMC lines, counts, and squiggles. See charts.

[810am] ES update -

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/16/15)

[250pm] SPX update -
Lines, tracking counts, squiggles. See charts.

[745am] ES update -

Monday, June 15, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/15/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
New gap in VIX.

[2pm] SPX update -
Lines, counts, and squiggles. See charts.

[740am] ES update -
Overnight drop in ES filled a day-session upward gap. See chart and weekend commentary for more.

Saturday, June 13, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - A Decision Point (6/12/15)

SP500 rebounded sharply from 2072.14 (see Rally Next? (6/5/15)) but gave back half of its recovery on Friday. We monitor for a breach of the range defined by the pullback low (2072.14) and rebound high (2015.02) in the context of our three tracking scenarios.

Chart 1 revisits the big picture since the 2009 bottom. As discussed before, we track the 2015 price actions in SP500 as the end of the blue wave [3]-up (or [C]-up), the transition into the final leg of the blue wave [4], or part of the green wave [5]-up.

Within that context, recent price actions have allowed us to uncover the following near term tracking scenarios.

Base case bullish scenario (Chart 2)
An EDT wave E-up of (5)-up of [3]-up is still unfolding. The June low is wave [d]-down of E-up. Wave [e]-up is in progress.

Alternative bullish scenario (Chart 3)
Wave (2)-down of wave [5]-up is a lengthy sideways pullback. The final decline is a potential expanding EDT, potentially targeting the 2040 area.

Alternatively, wave (1)-up of wave [5]-up could be an LDT to the all-time-high and wave (2)-down has just commenced.

Alternative bearish scenario (Chart 4)
SP500 has concluded its wave [3]/[C]-up, or wave (D)-up of its wave [4]-down. An LDT decline begins the next down swing.

Friday, June 12, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/12/15)

[1145am] SPX update-

[920am] ES update-
ES retracing its recent rebound. See chart.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/11/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
A potential 5-up/ABC-up in SPX is likely complete. The gap in VIX (discussed in Rally Next? (6/5/15)) is also filled. See charts.

[810am] ES update -