MTU Weekend Ed. - Filtered (12/23/21 close)

The added price bars of the past week now have filtered our three tracking counts down to one, the triple zig-zag. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Room for Santa Rally (12/17/21)

Previous tracking scenarios are unchanged. 

Chart 1 - The red and blue tracking counts anticipates a Santa Rally. 

Chart 2 - The most bearish count is the one where the green (B) is the blue Y - the top.

 

 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Upswing (12/10/21 close)

 See last week's post for context

MTU Weekend Ed. - 50-DMA

We commented in the Nov 21 post (as of Nov 19 close) about "a possible high or  small-degree wave-two or wave-B retrace with MA50 as a potential floor." in SPX. And now the SPX is at its MA50 (and the Dow its MA200). 

While a (truncated) high (at the red 5) remains a possibility,  the subsequent decline looks more like a corrective wave (a double zigzag) than a impulse wave (an incomplete leading diagonal), and favors a wave-B (or X) or a wave-Two.  The following chart updates where we are in terms of these three possibilities.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Failure or Pullback (11/26 close)

A high is possible if we had a wave five failure (green "(5)?").  There is no confirmation yet with a three-wave decline from the point of failure so far. 

An expanded flat-like wave B (blue) or wave Two (red) pullback looks more probable.  

MTU Weekend Ed - Update (11/19/21 close)

A possible high (red 5)  or  small-degree wave-two (green) or wave-B (blue) retrace with MA50 as a potential floor. 

How it fits into the larger tracking counts:

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Update (11/12/21 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (11/5/21 close)

Here is what the tracking chart posted last week looks like with 5 additional bars of the week.

A small-degree five-up likely points to the green 5 (or [i] of 5) or the blue A of (Z).

MTU Weekend Update - Marching toward Year End (10/29/21 close)

Tracking 

a potential small-degree fifth wave (green) with wave 1-5 equally just shy of 5000,

and a potential third zigzag (blue). 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Fifth Wave (10/22/21 Close)

With the new high in SPX, the risks to the bearish view have materialized.  We observed on the 10/1/21 close: "How about risks to the bearish view? ... Therefore it is possible that the current decline is the last leg of a flag-like structure since the August high.   That structure would translate into a potential fourth wave (or another x wave) since the Oct 2020 low." Here is a picture. 

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wave B retrace (10/15/21)

Short term tracking counts (color coded)

MTU Weekend Ed - Consolidation (10/8/21 close)

SPX is likely consolidating ahead of another leg down.  The potential structures of the rebound are a triangle (marked),  flat (marked), or a larger B-up wave from the nominal low this past week  (not marked).  See chart. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Red October (10/1/21 close)

September not only delivered red candles in key U.S. stock benchmarks, but also saw index closes below the August lows. 

We have a three-wave advance since the March 2020 low, which has potentially concluded at the recent ATH.  If so, the subsequent correction of this advance is likely to be faster than the rise.  The 3725 area in SPX could represent meaningful support based on the price structure, but would imply a substantial decline from the high in percentage terms. 

How about risks to the bearish view?  Note that the Dow topped in August, a few weeks earlier than SPX.  Note that it is not easy or even possible to count a five-wave decline from the high yet.  Therefore it is possible that the current decline is the last leg of a flag-like structure since the August high.   That structure would translate into a potential fourth wave (or another x wave) since the Oct 2020 low. 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Wrapping up Q3 (9/24/21 close)

The August low in SPX was breached decisively this past week. As the 3rd quarter concludes this coming week, we will see if SPX delivers the first red monthly bar since January (Chart 1). 

The ongoing subsequent rebound is strong.  It likely will craw along the underside of a potential prior wedge as this potential topping process progresses (Chart 2). 

MTU Weekend Ed - Turning (9/17/21 close)

SPX is potentially turning this month following a marginal ATH. 

Its low in August is 4367.73, which needs to be breached for a credible turn (Chart 1).

The index closed just below its 50-day SMA (Chart 2) after being rejected by the underside of a potential prior EDT (Chart 3).  Ideally, that resistance (4486.87) should not be regained to reflect any determination of a turn. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Nested Wedges (9/3/21 close)

If nested wedges in SPX are present, the next correction is likely swift, taking less than 18 months to complete. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wedging once more (8/27/21 close)

 The new high in SPX has promoted the small wedge count highlighted last week.  

MTU Weekend Ed. - Turn(ing) (8/20/21 close)

A clean top in SPX, but a three-wave decline so far (Chart 1). 

The three-wave decline can morph into a leading diagonal triangle or a large flat. If so, a meaning full top is likely in (blue (Y) Chart 2). 

The three-wave decline can be the entire correction.  In this case, an ending diagonal triangle may be wrapping up (green (Y) Chart 2). 

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wrapping Up (8/13/21)

 A potential EDT midweek did not play out as our small-degree wave (c) continue to advance.  By the end of week (Friday, the 13th), wave(c) now looks ready to wrap up. 

Wednesday Update - Wedge Watching (8/11/21)

If this EDT interpretation is valid, a case can be made that high today or tomorrow is a remarkable one.  See the weekend update for context. Note also that the Dow finally broke out to a new high.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Counting On (8/6/21 close)

SPX appears to have broken out of its recent consolidation (tracked as b-down).  c-up is likely in progress, marching towards the proposed finale. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Tracking a potential small-degree c-up (7/30/21 close)

Tracking a potential small-degree c-up to conclude (z)Y(Y)

MTU Weekend Ed. - Zigzags R Us (7/23/21 close)

Tracking counts on the large structure unchanged.  Potentially one more zigzags near term towards the blue (Y). 

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Patterns (7/16/21 close)

 

Wednesday Update - Potential Small-Degree Wedge (7/14/21)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Zigzag Update (7/9/21 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Zigzags (7/2/21)

We are tracking the upswing since the Lockdown Low as a potential double zigzag [blue (Y)] or a potential triple zigzag [red (Y) and (X)].  See Chart 1.

 

For the double zigzag count, its wave (Y) can also be counted as a smaller triple zigzag which is likely mature based on measurements.  See Chart 2 - wave Y is about 0.618 of wave W, and now wave Z is around 0.618 of wave Y.

For the triple zigzag count,  Chart 3 tracks a potential expanding triangle wave (X) currently in progress. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Another look at the larger structure (6/25/21 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - SPX Scenarios (6/18/21 close)