With the new high in SPX, the risks to the bearish view have materialized. We observed on the 10/1/21 close: "How about risks to the bearish view? ... Therefore it is possible that the current decline is the last leg of a flag-like structure since the August high. That structure would translate into a potential fourth wave (or another x wave) since the Oct 2020 low." Here is a picture.
The length both in time and price of the run up to Sep 2021 peak prob negates MTU's comment. From 2020 lows.
ReplyDeleteNote the false reversals up after red candles in the first half of 2015.
Mkt is now up 18 mths approx from the Mar 2020 low and usually mkt stalls or reverses at such a point. And DJIA is still in the approx trading range since May.
SPX has just about doubled its 2020 correction range too. NASDAQ 2.5x. DJIA just under 2x. Danger zone usually.
Mkt is almost on 5 yrs from the Nov 2016 takeoff.
My prev comments on tech stks like AMZN still apply.
SPX etc.. has also passed the balancing out of the Sep 2018 to Jan 2020 tops. 16 mths.
ReplyDelete16 mths from April 2020 = Sep 2021.