Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/30/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Month-end and marginal new high followed by a quick pullback. See chart.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/29/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX short term tracking (Chart 1). Squiggle tracking if a high is in (Chart 2). See charts.

Friday, November 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Potential Terminal Move (11/25/16)

This week, we explore the possibility that the post-election thrust completes the the upswing from the February low. (This is one of several possibilities, but an interesting one.)

Chart 1 shows how the 2016 upswing fits into the big picture.
[green] Wave (1)-up of wave [5]-up from the 2009 bottom or wave [5]-up in its entirety.
[red] Wave (d)-up of wave [4]-down from the 2009 bottom. Wave [4]-down is an expanding triangle.
[blue] Wave (b)-up of wave [4]-down from the 2009 bottom. Wave [4]-down is either an expanding flat or a triangle.

From a wave structure perspective, one would then track the 2016 upswing as an LDT/EDT for the green scenario above or a triple-zigzag for the red and blue scenarios above. In the case of an LDT/EDT, wave E is capped by 2286 and the 2215 area where SP00 is currently at represents equality of upswing ratios. See Chart 2.

Chart 3 counts wave E, the post-election thrust, in more detail. Friday's high likely either completed wave [c]-up of E or wave iii of [c]-up of E.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/17/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
While the case for a breakout is building in SPX (Chart 1) (especially with record highs in other indexes), a near term downswing looks probable give a completing post-election thrust in SPX (3s or 5s, Chart 2 and Chart 3) and ES(5s, Chart 4).

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/16/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
No new high or higher high in SPX so far. But SPX did closed above the breakout line. See charts.

Monday, November 14, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/14/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
More record highs among benchmark indexes (Chart 1). Potential small-degree triangle in SPX(Chart 2).

Friday, November 11, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Post Election Rally (11/11/16)

Stocks rallied strongly following the U.S. election, so far following the their historical decennial pattern tendencies (Chart 1). In fact, the Dow made a new record high in just three days and the new high is yet to be confirmed by other benchmark indexes (Chart 2).

The rally in SPX took place after SPX had successfully retested its 2015-2016 resistance(Chart 3). Despite the rally this week, SPX did note register a breakout of its 2016 resistance and closed the week below that resistance line. At a smaller degree, SPX is probing the blue breakout line in Chart 4 for potential support. Chart 4 also presents key intermediate term bull/bear tracking.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Market timing Update (11/10/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
To follow up yesterday's EOD discussion about prospects of a breakout - SPX broke above the resistance lines today, but closed below them (Chart 1)- no confirmation of a breakout today. See chart 2 for bull/bear tracking. The Dows makes and closed at a new all-time high (Chart 3), tracking the decennial pattern (Chart 4)so far.

[845am] ES update-
ES bull/bear (blue/red) tracking counts update. See chart.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/9/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
Today's high in coincided with the intersection of the two potential resistance lines (see Chart). Let's see if there is follow-through for a breakout. See intraday updates below for bull/bear tracking on SPX and the DOW.

[310pm] INDU update-
The Dow is less than 40 points shy of a new all-time high. See bull/bear tracking chart.

[3pm] SPX update-
Cash index tracking, see chart.