Saturday, October 27, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Odds (10/26/18 close)

Odds favor further weakness in SPX.

SPX has now lost its 200 DMA support by a meaningful margin.

The up wave from the Feb 2016 low likely either topped in Jan 2018 or Sep/Oct 2018.  The current pullback is unlikely part of wave [iv]-down since the Feb 2016 low due to degree violations in price and/or in time.  In other words, this is likely a larger degree correction in SPX.

From a longer term perspective, nearly four out of the six surviving EW counts since the 2009 low (4 bullish counts and 2 bearish counts) suggest that further a decline is likely.

Near term, despite the presence of oversold indicators in various time frames, it's prudent to monitor the following most bearish short term scenario ([iii] of 3 down)  while be cognizant of various scenarios of a larger potential upswing.   Near term dynamic support is around 2558, 2493, 2423, resistance is around 2726, 2821.

Update - 10/29/18
In the short term chart above, 
Potential blue [i]-down morphed from a potential contracting DT to a potential expending DT.
Potential red [ii]-up may or may not be finished (expanded flat? with today's drop as its (b)-dn). 


For the short term, a parsimonious count for the potential [i]-down shown in the following chart captures the recent price actions well, without degree violations in price  (yet).

Friday, October 19, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed - 200 DMA (10/19/18)

SPX is probing its 200DMA for the second week, the 6th time since the Feb 2016 low. SPX actually closed the week just below it(Chart 1). The big picture as discussed last week has not changed.  If the 200DMA gives away, dynamic support is around 2560.  Near term resistance is around 2855.

Near term structure presents several possibilities.

Price action details in 2018.

Friday, October 12, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed - Big Picture (10/12/18 close)

The big picture - Chart 1 shows the advance in SPX since its 2009 low.  Here are the tracking scenarios based on technical considerations. 

[top] If you wish to take a bullish or a bearish perspective,  the most credible scenarios are the green 5 on the bullish side and the red 5 on the bearish side.

  bullish. An EDT since Feb 2016, current in D-down, E-up next is shorter than C-up
bearish. Market has topped, prior wave 4 at a lower degree is 1800-2100, Fib retracements indicated in chart.

[next] The blue 3. Wave 4 down likely targets the election low around 2100.

[third] The blue 3*.  Wave 4 down likely a triangle to alternate with wave 2.  That the Apr-Oct advance is the complex leg of the potential triangle.  The Feb/Apr low holds.

Regarding the short term - Chart 2 tracks a potential impulse down in progress, currently in wave 4-up.  Chart 3 presents price action details in 2018 associated with the big picture tracking above. Dynamic support is around 2550 first, then 2490.


Saturday, October 6, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull/Bear Tracking

Long term yields are attempting to break out, fighting the upper B-band.

SPX bearish count - expanding diagonal triangle as B-up or 5-up.

SPX impulse count - currently in wave [iv] correction

Tuesday, October 2, 2018