Friday, October 12, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed - Big Picture (10/12/18 close)

The big picture - Chart 1 shows the advance in SPX since its 2009 low.  Here are the tracking scenarios based on technical considerations. 

[top] If you wish to take a bullish or a bearish perspective,  the most credible scenarios are the green 5 on the bullish side and the red 5 on the bearish side.

  bullish. An EDT since Feb 2016, current in D-down, E-up next is shorter than C-up
bearish. Market has topped, prior wave 4 at a lower degree is 1800-2100, Fib retracements indicated in chart.

[next] The blue 3. Wave 4 down likely targets the election low around 2100.

[third] The blue 3*.  Wave 4 down likely a triangle to alternate with wave 2.  That the Apr-Oct advance is the complex leg of the potential triangle.  The Feb/Apr low holds.


Regarding the short term - Chart 2 tracks a potential impulse down in progress, currently in wave 4-up.  Chart 3 presents price action details in 2018 associated with the big picture tracking above. Dynamic support is around 2550 first, then 2490.

 

2 comments:

  1. See Chart 3

    I said about a mth ago one more possible rally then down.

    The size of the past week's fall indicates trend reversal (not corrective action within a still continuing uptrend) as this is a larger degree wave than all previous corrections since Feb. The only question now if will it have countertrend rally, hold on side or fall over the next week or so.

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