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Sunday, November 21, 2021
MTU Weekend Ed - Update (11/19/21 close)
A possible high (red 5) or small-degree wave-two (green) or wave-B (blue) retrace with MA50 as a potential floor.
As side issue MTU & others might like to hear about a brief talk online I had several years ago with Nick Leeson who brought down Barings in 1995.
I asked him how he got into that mess and why he wasnt using EW etc.... but he didnt answer that part.
The answer I got was he couldnt unload any/much positions he had because the Singapore mkt was thin and that he thru his buying had previously kept the mkt liquid and bouyant. So once he stopped the buying it became weak. So he was unable to sell without the mkt declining taking a loss.
So thats an example of a thin mkt. I dont know what SIMEX is like now for the NIKKI Futures but its worth noting.
I note the NIKKI index in 1994-95 had a multi 5 wave decline, and from May 1994 top to Nov 1994 there was n nice clean neg 5 wave seq where possibly if he had been using EW he may have gone long, but it turned out to be a trap as that was neg wave 1 of larger deg 5 waves down.
Regarding NIKKEI, the 1996 high is higher than 1995 high - the May-Nov 1994 drop is of a smaller degree; The drop from 1989/1990 top to the 2003 low is a three, unlikely a five.
There appears to be a 5 down between May 94 and mid 1995. The upper wave i down has 5 in it but I would have been confused - the Nikki does a lot of weird patterns.
As side issue MTU & others might like to hear about a brief talk online I had several years ago with Nick Leeson who brought down Barings in 1995.
ReplyDeleteI asked him how he got into that mess and why he wasnt using EW etc.... but he didnt answer that part.
The answer I got was he couldnt unload any/much positions he had because the Singapore mkt was thin and that he thru his buying had previously kept the mkt liquid and bouyant. So once he stopped the buying it became weak. So he was unable to sell without the mkt declining taking a loss.
So thats an example of a thin mkt. I dont know what SIMEX is like now for the NIKKI Futures but its worth noting.
I note the NIKKI index in 1994-95 had a multi 5 wave decline, and from May 1994 top to Nov 1994 there was n nice clean neg 5 wave seq where possibly if he had been using EW he may have gone long, but it turned out to be a trap as that was neg wave 1 of larger deg 5 waves down.
Any comments MTU ?
Regarding NIKKEI, the 1996 high is higher than 1995 high - the May-Nov 1994 drop is of a smaller degree; The drop from 1989/1990 top to the 2003 low is a three, unlikely a five.
ReplyDeleteThere appears to be a 5 down between May 94 and mid 1995.
DeleteThe upper wave i down has 5 in it but I would have been confused - the Nikki does a lot of weird patterns.