Friday, June 19, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - New All Time High (6/19/15)

The SP400 mid-cap index, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 2000 small-cap index hit new all-time highs this past week (Chart 1). Notably, the Nasdaq Composite Index has finally exceeded its Y2K peak. Odds appear to favor new record highs in the senior indexes.

In terms of seasonality, however, there could be a sideways/downward tendency for the rest of the month.  See Chart S7 and Chart S8 in Monthly Outlook Update (5/29/15).

In A Decision Point (6/12/15), we outlined a base-case bullish scenario, an alternative bullish scenario and an alternative bearish scenario. Chart 2, 3 and 4 offer an update. Please see A Decision Point (6/12/15) for discussion.

base-case bullish scenario
alternative bullish scenario
alternative bearish scenario