Friday, September 18, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Breakout Failure (9/18/15)

After a series of inside bars on the weekly chart, SP500 broke out upwards this past week leading into the FOMC announcement, but swiftly and meaningfully pulled back(Chart 1).

From a bearish perspective, the rebound could be over on the breakout failure (Chart 1), a kiss-and-goodbye with respect to a key overhead resistance (Chart 2), and a potential ABC-X-ABC wave structure since the August low (Chart 3, subject to potentially one more blue wave C advance, which is not required).

All is not lost from a bullish perspective either.  An unfilled gap remains above this past week's high (Chart 2).  A number of odd-looking bullish counts since the August low catch one's attention (Chart 4). 

[red - this one is an interesting possiblity] An LDT off a potential orthodox low .

[green] A disproportionate impulse wave whose wave [iv] triangle is just unfolding.

[blue] An imperfect impulse wave whose wave [iv] marginally overlaps wave [i] in this volatile period.

[gray] An odd shaped LDT.

On a higher time frame, one observes that the post-FOMC pullback could be an attempt to probe the purple trendline as well as the green mid-channel line for potential support (Chart 5).  Will support hold?