Saturday, December 6, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Price and Time (12/6/14 close)

We have been tracking a potential fifth wave expanding ending diagonal triangle (EDT) since the October 2014 low in SP500 as one of the potential long term scenarios. See Chart 1 blue wave 5 and discussions in Monthly Outlook Update (11/28/14). The proposed EDT now appears (nearly) complete with an overthrow, in time but not necessarily in price. This fifth wave, when complete, should complete the advance since the December/January low (Chart 1 blue wave (5)) and in turn conclude the advance since the 2011 low (Chart 1 blue wave [3] or black wave [C]).

Under this count, the advance since the October low in stocks is the terminal wave [e] of the proposed EDT (Chart 2). Wave (a) of wave [e] or the entire wave [e] is nearing completion. Chart 3 presents the top near term tracking scenarios since the October low.

[blue] A completed five-wave advance (as wave (a) of [e] of the EDT) followed by a potential expanded flat  or triangle consolidation (as wave (b) of [e] of the EDT). Wave a and b of the consolidation is likely complete. Primary support is now at 2005 and 1930. Expect an wave (c) advance following this consolidation to complete wave [e] of the EDT.

[green] A nearly complete ABC advance.  Squiggle count on the small-degree advance in December suggests that another marginal high is possible but not required to complete the waves (Chart 4).  The completed ABC advance is either wave (a) of [e] of wave [e] of the larger expanding EDT.

 Alternatively, since we track a three-wave advance off the October low, this advance also fits the profile of wave (d) of an expanded triangle wave [4] or wave (b) of a contracting triangle or expanding flat wave [4] illustrated in Chart 5.

[black] This scenario has the ABC advance in the green count as the first three waves of a five wave advance.  Expect a shallow wave [iv] next and a wave [v] advance afterwards.  Since wave [iii] is shorter than wave [i], wave [v] is likely to be capped around 2100-2125 in SP500.