Saturday, September 6, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Terminal Move (9/5/14 close)

stocks, gold, USD

For the near term, we are tracking two possibilities for stocks. Odds appear to favor additional near term advances.

[1] SPX/Dow/NDX appear to be in their fifth wave advance since their August lows (Chart 1 and 2, green counts). Wave 5 and wave 1 equality projects to 2030 in SPX.  2015 is where wave 5 equals to 0.618 of wave 1.

Note that the Dow Transports made a record high this past Friday (Chart 3). Transports may be currently leading. However, a five-wave advance off its August low appears to be mature for transports as highlighted in Chart 3.

[2] The current upswing in SPX topped this past Thursday (Chart 1 and 2, blue counts).  In this case, the Dow Transports topped one day later and NDX one day earlier.

This weekend marked the  three-year anniversary of Gold's record peak in 2011, as discussed in Monthly Outlook Update (8/29/14)  It'll be interesting to see if a turning point is at hand and if the bullish blue terminal triangle wave (C) in Chart 4 completes the Gold's decline.

At the same time, the USD index is at its major long term resistance (Chart 5).  A similar, but bearish, red terminal triangle wave (C) is potentially present in the USD index.