Saturday, February 8, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (2/7/14 close)

The 3.45% rise from the February low of 1737.92 in SP500 signaled the end of a three-week decline since its mid-January nominal high (1850.84). Friday’s high of 1798.03 has recovered 50%+ of the 113-point sell-off. SP500 is now approaching its 50-day SMA at 1809 from below (Chart 1).

As discussed in It’s TIME (1/24/14) and Monthly Outlook Update (1/31/14), we continue to track a January market top or a top in the March/April time frame. See Chart 2.

Odds continue to favor a top in the March/April time frame. Wave structures of the 10Y Treasury yield appear to offer support. Note that the initial rally has been moderate amid stock market weakness. Now, yields are poised to move higher for the near term (Chart 3).