Saturday, April 5, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - It's TIME (T-1) (4/4/14)

In terms of the big picture, U.S. stocks have entered the time window of a potential top as discussed previously (see It's TIME (1/24/14). As Chart 1 shows, a "timed top" is expected over the next week.  Note that this past week and the week after the next sit within the conventional +/-1-week tolerance window.

Furthermore, the Dow has finally caught up to other indexes by making a marginal all-time high.  The minimum requirement for an overthrow has now been met by all indexes.

At the same time,  Chart 2 shows that SP500 has been crawling alone and is again hitting its Hope Rally upper resistance line, which in the past had initiated major pullbacks.

Either SP500 topped on Friday or is likely to do so over the next two weeks according to the proposed time window.  Odds appear to favor a top over the next two weeks, perhaps allowing SP500 to complete an ending diagonal triangle (Chart 3 green) and NDX to complete its C wave advance (Chart 4).  But one should be aware of the big picture and the possibility that the top is already in.