Saturday, March 19, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Gap Filled, Potential Pullback Next (3/18/16 close)

SPX filled a prominent downward gap around 2040 this past week, following the dovish FOMC statement and press conference (Chart 1).

Curiously, the current upswing resembles the Sep-Nov rebound in terms of the strong momentum and tight channeling (Chart 1 red channels).

Note that the current upswing is also only points away from reaching equality with the Sep-Nov rebound (Chart 1, green lines).

Furthermore, if this upswing is an impulse wave, it is wrapping up wave three (Chart 2 blue iii) or wave five (Chart 2 green v). If this upswing takes on a corrective form, it may be wrapping up a triple zigzag (Chart 2 red) or a simple zigzag (Chart 2 gray).

A pullback to retest (at least) the 200-day moving average looks likely. Note that the strong momentum has also left two unfilled upward gaps below along the way.