MTU Weekend Ed. - Rolling Over (11/16/18 close)

The macro environment and market characters are slowly changing for stocks, consistent with a larger-degree correction in stocks.

- US liquidity is being mopped up as the Fed's balance sheet rolls over (Chart 1), somewhat offset by the perceived and actual return of capital and global capital flows at the moment.
- Small-cap and mid-cap indices just saw a death-cross in key moving averages (Chart 2 and Chart 3).
- SPX is struggling to regain its SMA200, and its key moving averages are now sloping down in SPX (Chart 4).

Wave structure in SPX suggests the potential for a series of 1s & 2s down if SMA200 holds.  (Chart 5, blue 1/2/[i][ii])  Dynamic support is around 2565 and resistance around 2785.

Near term squiggle,