Monday, April 23, 2012

Market Timing Update (4/23/12)

[PS] NDX and TRANsports -
Some potentially (immediately) bullish configurations. See charts.
NDX - double zigzag decline complete ? (blue)
TRAN - a potential 4th wave triangle for 5-up of (3)-up or (C)-up since its 2011 low?

[EOD] Stocks -
There has been no follow-through with respect to the overnight drop, neither with respect to the rebound from this morning's low, so far.

ES futures offer more complete wave structures (Chart 1 to the right).

Price action favors the interpretation of the completion of an X-wave at today's low (see the blue count in Chart 2 SPX and Chart 3 INDU). Note the overlapping waves in INDU.

The alternative counts barbell the primary count.
(green - bullish) - The pullback is over, with allowance for perhaps one more lower low.
(red - bearish) - The next leg of decline has begun with a series of 1s and 2s or an LDT.

[940am] NDX/NQ update -

Chart is for NQ whose count can be easily mapped to NDX.
black - ABC-X-ABC almost done
green - ABC-triangle-ABC, with B-up and C-down to go
red - wave 3 or wave C down following an LD decline.

[735am] ES update -
ES breaks trend line once more on a news driven move. A quick rebound before the cash open could complete an E-wave of a potential triangle in SPX cash, otherwise blue [x] as marked or additional sell-off is in play.