Market Timing Update (4/24/12)

[EOD] Stocks - DAX has traced out a five wave decline from its recovery high (Chart 1). Whether the current low is the bullish green [iv] or the bearish blue 1-down remains to be seen.

For the very near term, squiggle count suggests one more lower low before a rebound, unless a truncated low was already in place. On a separate note, SPX has traced out a five wave decline from today's high.

As such, assuming SPX rebounds with DAX, one finds the blue count on SPX (Chart 2) a probable tracking count, followed by the green count if the low in DAX is wave [iv].

There are more bearish count, such as a 3 of 3 down in DAX coming. But it is likely of lower probability.



[2pm] SPX / NDX update -
color coded counts. see charts.


[840am] ES update -