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LT SPX chart upper channel line from 1987 & 2000 tops gives current levels as resistance / topping zone.
Normally reaching that line (and other similar types of lines) requires several years of corrective action to be able to clear it again and bull trend continue.
Mkt Man, Thanks. On the log-scale (which is more reasonable for long term SP), the proposed line is way above the current top. On the arithmetic scale, the proposed line is closer to the ATH, but is still around 200 points above.
What if the true end of wave 5 from 1932 is in fact the 2000 peak and 2000-2009 is a distorted A wave, and 2009-Jan 2020 is a distorted B wave ?
1932 to 2000 = 68.5 yrs. 68.5 yrs x 1/3 = 22 yrs to ABC low from 2000, = 2022 approx. 68.5 yrs x 0.382 = 26.16yrs or 2026 ABC low.
This is something to consider.
I realize this query is negated by the apparent 5 waves (3 sections up) from 2009 to either 2018 or 2020 but the count from there (09) is somewhat questionable because the corrections in 2011-12 and 2015-16 are unusual in shape and timing.
The count is unclear in many sections all the way from 2009 and in 2003-2007, and inability to count appears to be a feature of corrective waves (like 1971-73 & 1976-81).
Prechter also notes that B waves have the same social conditions as we have seen since 2009.
Would like to hear your thts on this MTU ?
This is the alternative view to what is more probable that 2009-2020 is wave 5 from 1932.
The only problem with the 2000-2009 being an A wave per my query is that it doesnt have 5 waves in it, but 3.
Then if 2009-2020 was a B wave its lasted 11 yrs whereas the A wave was 9yrs which goes against orthodox timing rules.
Your other comment about the current rally being a B wave may be right but on what scale is the question - from the 2020 top, or the 2018 top ?
If the true wave peak is 2020 this current rally is prob a wave ii of a 5 down unfolding (based on timing structure) rather than a B wave. Thats assuming 2020 marked end of 5 from 1932.
Also having regard to your comment about the current rally being a B wave, you must remember as I said once before if the 2020 peak is the end of 5 from 1932 - and theres a fair chance it is - then you wont see and ABC down on the deg scale you are talking about, but a 5 down with a target around 10000 pts on DJIA within 2 yrs which would make up the larger deg A wave, then the B will follow (if std EW gyrations are happening) putting it back up to prob 18000 area. Then a large C will push it down prob to 5000. Those are my rough estimates.
Speaking of long term tracking, current upswing hitting long term trend lines, wave 5 or wave 1 of 5, I'd like to keep it simple, as in this long term tracking chart on INDU posted on the right-hand-side panel.
MTU,
ReplyDeleteLT SPX chart upper channel line from 1987 & 2000 tops gives current levels as resistance / topping zone.
Normally reaching that line (and other similar types of lines) requires several years of corrective action to be able to clear it again and bull trend continue.
Mkt Man, Thanks.
DeleteOn the log-scale (which is more reasonable for long term SP), the proposed line is way above the current top.
On the arithmetic scale, the proposed line is closer to the ATH, but is still around 200 points above.
Its close enough.
DeleteAnd I have never believed in log scales.
The large slide in Jan-March has shown it has been repulsed by it.
DJIA - LT EW COUNT
ReplyDeleteWhat if the true end of wave 5 from 1932 is in fact the 2000 peak and 2000-2009 is a distorted A wave, and 2009-Jan 2020 is a distorted B wave ?
1932 to 2000 = 68.5 yrs.
68.5 yrs x 1/3 = 22 yrs to ABC low from 2000, = 2022 approx.
68.5 yrs x 0.382 = 26.16yrs or 2026 ABC low.
This is something to consider.
I realize this query is negated by the apparent 5 waves (3 sections up) from 2009 to either 2018 or 2020 but the count from there (09) is somewhat questionable because the corrections in 2011-12 and 2015-16 are unusual in shape and timing.
The count is unclear in many sections all the way from 2009 and in 2003-2007, and inability to count appears to be a feature of corrective waves (like 1971-73 & 1976-81).
Prechter also notes that B waves have the same social conditions as we have seen since 2009.
Would like to hear your thts on this MTU ?
This is the alternative view to what is more probable that 2009-2020 is wave 5 from 1932.
This "alternative" was the main tracking scenario following the 2000-2009 correction, then it appears to get too long and too far.
DeleteWorth to note that the upswing from Mar2020 is tracked as B following Q1-2020 correction. The risk is that it gets too long and too far?
The only problem with the 2000-2009 being an A wave per my query is that it doesnt have 5 waves in it, but 3.
DeleteThen if 2009-2020 was a B wave its lasted 11 yrs whereas the A wave was 9yrs which goes against orthodox timing rules.
Your other comment about the current rally being a B wave may be right but on what scale is the question - from the 2020 top, or the 2018 top ?
If the true wave peak is 2020 this current rally is prob a wave ii of a 5 down unfolding (based on timing structure) rather than a B wave. Thats assuming 2020 marked end of 5 from 1932.
Also having regard to your comment about the current rally being a B wave, you must remember as I said once before if the 2020 peak is the end of 5 from 1932 - and theres a fair chance it is - then you wont see and ABC down on the deg scale you are talking about, but a 5 down with a target around 10000 pts on DJIA within 2 yrs which would make up the larger deg A wave, then the B will follow (if std EW gyrations are happening) putting it back up to prob 18000 area. Then a large C will push it down prob to 5000. Those are my rough estimates.
DeleteMTU, per my last comment there will only be an ABC from 2020 peak if the advance from 2009 to 2020 is wave 1 of a larger deg 5 from 1932.
DeleteIf that advance is not wave 1 but a completed 5, then expect a neg 5 seq.
And this is the BIG question. What is the wave from 2009 ? Neely's view of DJIA 100,000 pts by 2050 would fit that scenario.
That trend line I mentioned above and other technical feature may give us the answer ???
Speaking of long term tracking, current upswing hitting long term trend lines, wave 5 or wave 1 of 5, I'd like to keep it simple, as in this long term tracking chart on INDU posted on the right-hand-side panel.
Deletehttps://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bBD7CaMKwbM/XqtyQeOQiTI/AAAAAAAAmEE/gbMJ3QanchEGPAMCbuV6UOy10qoHjOJ2gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/20200327-INDU-LT.png
Sorry that should be 67.5 yrs, not 68.5 yrs
ReplyDeleteJuly 1932 to Jan 2000.