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A review of past chart patterns on the bal of probabilities indicates the rally since March is a countertrend wave, given its wave structure and speed.
It does not look like an impulse wave. Nor would you expect one at this juncture given the waves seen over the past decade.
It is either a wave 2 or B wave of a large deg neg wave, or a larger B wave, or still part of an unfolding neg wave that began in Jan or earlier.
UKX particularly indicates so far this is the more probable conclusion.
A review of LT 20 - 40 yr charts reveal under std circumstances there is little scope to get above the Jan high by much without a lot of corrective seqs and time spent in them.
There is no fundamental basis for mkts commencing a bull trend after a 11yr run from 2009 with the eco problems at the moment given the pandemic and political chaos in US & EU which is only likely to get worse.
The key question is when will the countertrend end.
MTU - be it not relevant now but may be later when looking at the counts and timing all the way thru, it is my opinion the true orthodox low of the wave count in 1982 was the March low, not the August one.
Not only does the neg 5 count from 1981 top end there in March 82, but the impulse wave up to Jan 84 also fits that seq best.
4 years ago you recall my prediction in Feb 2016 that the GOP Candidate would win the 2016 POTUS election and that the GOP would also win the next 2 or 3 as well. At the time their candidate was unknown. That prediction is based on mathematical numbers & forces.
I quoted this guys report then who I seem to recall agreed, but one must consider given 2 factors he may be wrong this time.
This presumes Biden will still be the candidate in Nov but I suspect they will dump him and slide Hillary back in at the last moment (that is why Biden was chosen) and that again wont go down well with Sanders supporters or many other DEMS.
Also Biden's dementia problems mean Trump would beat him in debates if he were to go to the end.
Investors need to consider what is the outcome of either winning, as both sides may claim a stolen election due to voting procedures in the current pandemic situation and there may not be a solid outcome and the need for a USSC ruling. It may end up that the court rules another election under proper conditions is required.
DJIA SPX UKX DAX etc
ReplyDeleteA review of past chart patterns on the bal of probabilities indicates the rally since March is a countertrend wave, given its wave structure and speed.
It does not look like an impulse wave.
Nor would you expect one at this juncture given the waves seen over the past decade.
It is either a wave 2 or B wave of a large deg neg wave, or a larger B wave, or still part of an unfolding neg wave that began in Jan or earlier.
UKX particularly indicates so far this is the more probable conclusion.
A review of LT 20 - 40 yr charts reveal under std circumstances there is little scope to get above the Jan high by much without a lot of corrective seqs and time spent in them.
There is no fundamental basis for mkts commencing a bull trend after a 11yr run from 2009 with the eco problems at the moment given the pandemic and political chaos in US & EU which is only likely to get worse.
The key question is when will the countertrend end.
MTU - be it not relevant now but may be later when looking at the counts and timing all the way thru, it is my opinion the true orthodox low of the wave count in 1982 was the March low, not the August one.
ReplyDeleteNot only does the neg 5 count from 1981 top end there in March 82, but the impulse wave up to Jan 84 also fits that seq best.
US NOV Election
ReplyDelete4 years ago you recall my prediction in Feb 2016 that the GOP Candidate would win the 2016 POTUS election and that the GOP would also win the next 2 or 3 as well. At the time their candidate was unknown. That prediction is based on mathematical numbers & forces.
I quoted this guys report then who I seem to recall agreed, but one must consider given 2 factors he may be wrong this time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/historian-who-has-accurately-called-every-election-since-1984-says-biden-will-beat-trump-in-2020-presidential-race-11596651351?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
This presumes Biden will still be the candidate in Nov but I suspect they will dump him and slide Hillary back in at the last moment (that is why Biden was chosen) and that again wont go down well with Sanders supporters or many other DEMS.
Also Biden's dementia problems mean Trump would beat him in debates if he were to go to the end.
Investors need to consider what is the outcome of either winning, as both sides may claim a stolen election due to voting procedures in the current pandemic situation and there may not be a solid outcome and the need for a USSC ruling. It may end up that the court rules another election under proper conditions is required.
Thanks, 12 weeks left till the election week. has potential to be a historical moment
ReplyDelete"Historic" is an understatement.
DeleteSee what Newt had to say about voting procedures here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t_7zovD0N4&feature=emb_logo
Snr Democrats in recent debate forums have canvassed the spectre of the west coast States of CA OR WA seceding if Trump wins.