Friday, May 1, 2020

MTU Month-End Ed. - Fib618 Retrace (5/1/20)

SPX  reacted after having retraced 0.618 of its prior sell-off, which is at the top of its 2018-2019 support-resistance zone.  SPX closed the week below the resistance zone but above its SMA50 (Chart 1).

Price structure can accommodate a rebound to new recovery high in the near term (Chart 2)
Purple - thanks to Krasi - (A)(B)(C) rebound with an EDT wave (C)-up, as long as SPX stays above  2802.74.   This count would work for NDX as well (Chart 3)
Blue - (W)(X)(Y) rebound, waiting for C-up o (Y)-up to materialize




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8 comments:

  1. Mkt ManMay 1, 2020 at 9:45 PM

    I dont know where or on what basis Krasi gets his projections from. He was wrong on the forecast on his 18 & 25 April ST ones.
    Its difficult to get them right and even worse for indexes due to their component nature.

    Chart 3 - you keep not looking at the correct timing structure - your purple C would make it too long a time period rel to the Feb-Mar slide. The purple C should be where your green (5) is.

    Also regards the post you did on Hedge Funds and Ray Dalio a few days ago I cant understand why those funds have done so poorly - any hedge fund focusing of the short side has no excuse in my view for not making at least 100% return for the past 4 mths, unless they are restricted by SEC rules.

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  2. Market Timing UpdateMay 1, 2020 at 9:58 PM

    Chart 3 - still trying to figure out time structure signatures of waves(in general) if there are any.

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    Replies
    1. Mkt ManMay 2, 2020 at 12:24 AM

      On Charts 2 & 3 you need to start your count from the mid Jan top amigo.

      Delete
    2. Mkt ManMay 2, 2020 at 12:41 AM

      Also the timing structure will never be perfect on most waves, and its being masked by the distortions in the price swings in the waves and the angle the mkt has been running on since 2009. Best to use rule of thumb approx counts under such conditions.

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  3. Mkt ManMay 3, 2020 at 7:44 PM

    MTU, have you noticed that Gold is doing same waves as indexes but energy levels are inverted on each wave since Jan ?

    Whats your count on Gold for the past decade ?

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    Replies
    1. Market Timing UpdateMay 4, 2020 at 9:34 AM

      ABC down from 2010 high then ABC up from 2015 low (could morph into 123 up if it wants to).
      See
      https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-If-jx9_pNyg/Voc1hlFms9I/AAAAAAAAgOU/bIQleai3XFQ/s1600/GOLD-LT.png

      Delete
    2. Mkt ManMay 4, 2020 at 11:16 AM

      MTU those rallies in GOLD I doubt are corrective A & C waves on this chart but impulse.

      The up move from 2016 is more likely a B wave or some type.

      So min target level at some point prob in a few yrs time will be around $1100, or at most $800 area for the C wave.

      Delete
  4. Market Timing UpdateMay 4, 2020 at 3:12 PM

    The upward A and C waves can be impulse legs of zigzags.

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