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Thursday, May 14, 2020
Thursday Update (5/14/20)
The potential wedge in NDX is still going (Chart 1), lending some support to the gray count in SPX (Chart 2).
MTU have you considered what we should see over the next few yrs IF the 2020 peak was end of wave 5 from 1932 ?
My figuring on this is we wont see the the confirmation wave until 2023-24 unless price runs ahead of std time. What happens by end of 2021 may also give a signal.
Remember that if early 2020 is the peak (5of5)- then mkt will not do abc corrections of the prev up waves, but 5s.
Yes that MY would be the case unless time gets compressed into a quick move. What the implications would be is instead of the usual up cycle we have seen for each decade running to the end of each we would see net down cycle if time runs to std count.
But who knows - Neely could be right and it continues to rise to DJIA 100,000 pts ? with 2009-2020 being wave 1 and curr being wave 2 correction.
But remember even a large bear mkt trend over 2 decades would see solid countertrend rallies, like 1966 - 80. Particularly under current QE type conditions. (Neely is predicting that for a 5 yr period but std EW theory would say it needed to go longer in time and deeper in price decline than him).
Depends on investor sentiment and how much damage the CV-19 does. Enormous damage to production, industries, businesses & GDP has already happened and the Govt cant keep handing out $billions forever. If multi $trillion have to be so over the next year or so then there could be inflation consequences later.
US INDEXES
ReplyDeleteMTU have you considered what we should see over the next few yrs IF the 2020 peak was end of wave 5 from 1932 ?
My figuring on this is we wont see the the confirmation wave until 2023-24 unless price runs ahead of std time. What happens by end of 2021 may also give a signal.
Remember that if early 2020 is the peak (5of5)- then mkt will not do abc corrections of the prev up waves, but 5s.
If that's the case, the direction would be down for multiple years with significant retrace.
ReplyDeleteYes that MY would be the case unless time gets compressed into a quick move. What the implications would be is instead of the usual up cycle we have seen for each decade running to the end of each we would see net down cycle if time runs to std count.
DeleteBut who knows - Neely could be right and it continues to rise to DJIA 100,000 pts ? with 2009-2020 being wave 1 and curr being wave 2 correction.
But remember even a large bear mkt trend over 2 decades would see solid countertrend rallies, like 1966 - 80. Particularly under current QE type conditions. (Neely is predicting that for a 5 yr period but std EW theory would say it needed to go longer in time and deeper in price decline than him).
Depends on investor sentiment and how much damage the CV-19 does. Enormous damage to production, industries, businesses & GDP has already happened and the Govt cant keep handing out $billions forever. If multi $trillion have to be so over the next year or so then there could be inflation consequences later.