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Saturday, May 16, 2020
MTU Weekend Ed. - WXY (5/15/20 close)
primary tracking with an eye on the resistance zone
Your focus on NDX really highlights the real possibility that wave 5 of 5 on all main US indexes may have occurred in Jan.
We have a massive run on it and NASDAQ since 2009 (similar to the run that exhausted itself in 2000) which has 3 sections doubling its 2000-09 range and large volatile topping waves the past yr so the odds are given the pattern the rally since March is probably a B wave or a countertrend wave 2 of a neg seq started in Jan.
NASDAQ min target would be around 5000pts even on a std correction in a bull trend intact. If its 5of5 in line with DJIA NYA SPX LT chart etc then you would be looking at the decline over many years to the 1000-2000pt level.
Its unlikely on this pattern the recent moves it forming a consolidation to rise further later. Even if it was it would take many yrs to clear the top level and breakout sustainably.
Remember that in 2000-2003 NASDAQ lost 80% of it value.
I would not be holding any FAANG or tech stks showing similar wave patterns. Too much risk given what we have seen in the past.
Do not worry big low 9 year cycle low is coming and we will see higher high. I would hold FAANG, but I will buy oil companies because they will jump much more 4-5-8 times.
EW on these may be less applicable. But they broke out of consolidation in 2019 or 2020. AAPL and GOOG have reached targets, the rest are shy of their targets
Your focus on NDX really highlights the real possibility that wave 5 of 5 on all main US indexes may have occurred in Jan.
ReplyDeleteWe have a massive run on it and NASDAQ since 2009 (similar to the run that exhausted itself in 2000) which has 3 sections doubling its 2000-09 range and large volatile topping waves the past yr so the odds are given the pattern the rally since March is probably a B wave or a countertrend wave 2 of a neg seq started in Jan.
NASDAQ min target would be around 5000pts even on a std correction in a bull trend intact. If its 5of5 in line with DJIA NYA SPX LT chart etc then you would be looking at the decline over many years to the 1000-2000pt level.
Its unlikely on this pattern the recent moves it forming a consolidation to rise further later. Even if it was it would take many yrs to clear the top level and breakout sustainably.
Remember that in 2000-2003 NASDAQ lost 80% of it value.
I would not be holding any FAANG or tech stks showing similar wave patterns. Too much risk given what we have seen in the past.
Do not worry big low 9 year cycle low is coming and we will see higher high. I would hold FAANG, but I will buy oil companies because they will jump much more 4-5-8 times.
DeleteThats what Ray Dalio was saying back in January - that sort of talk, Krasi.
DeleteAnother guess works for SP500 too - https://invst.ly/queos
ReplyDeleteMTU - whats your view of the EW counts on the FAANG stks ?
ReplyDeleteEW on these may be less applicable.
DeleteBut they broke out of consolidation in 2019 or 2020.
AAPL and GOOG have reached targets, the rest are shy of their targets