Today's uptick EITHER invalidates the gray wedge OR the gray wedge is part of wave [b]-up of the blue B-down.
This interpretation leaves two short term tracking counts with different upside potential- the green [c] of C-up or the blue C-up.
See charts.
For your benefit MTU my opinion on trying to read and wave count the DJIA SPX etc is the problem we have now since the mid to late 1990s is the inclusion of tech and other non true industrial stks into these indexes whose vibrations are running to a completely different time cycle.
ReplyDeletePrior to then the olds stks were on pretty much similar vibrations.
As Ive said before the tech stks have since March caused the DJIA SPX etc to bubble up when if they werent in them the index wouldnt. So a bear mkt rally exceeds the price and wave targets and starts to look like a distorted impulse wave.
This even goes back to 2003 as I remember when that rally began many tech analysts couldnt work out whether it was an impulse wave or not.
So the rally since March based on its pattern the odds are is not an impulse wave, just as the rallies in 2018 & 2019 were not either.
It is dangerous to be long in this mkt particularly when you look at likely topping gyrations of AMZN & MSFT and the weak rallies in MMM, T etc...
You also need to take into account at any point on the indexes lifespan that the waves will not always be running to fixed linear time but may be either contracting in time (or price) or alt expanding in time (or price). And that is often what throw out a count particularly on wave 3 or C but it can sometimes do it on waves 1 or 5.
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