SPX also closed above its 50-day SMA (Chart 2).
The larger structure is likely an (A)(B)(C) down from its ATH which took 23 days, and another (A)(B)(C) up from its March low which is in its 17th day (Chart 2 blue).
It is possible to count the upswing from the March low as an impulse (Chart 2 green). We track it as an alternative scenario.
Chart 3 offers the squiggle counts for the corrective as sell as the impulse upswing. Upside caps are also provided based on these counts.
SP400 long term - can map the count in SP500 since 2009 to MID
Note that UKX DAX MID & NYA are trading below 50% rally level still - UKX around third. Mkts are still weak.
ReplyDeleteYour green count on Chart 3 is not in the correct positions if it were valid. I do not believe a green impulse count is running. There is considerable distortion in the waves from 23 Mar to curr which makes a micro count difficult anyway.
Blue (A) & (C) I think should be moved to the left.
MTU - question - what you you make of MID's price pattern compared to SPX or NASDAQ in terms of price ?
ReplyDeleteMID's 2020 peak was the same as 2018.
Mkt Man, please see the last chart added in the post. It appears that we can map the count on SP500 to MID as well.
DeleteMID & others - the big question is where is the true point of the blue 5 top.
DeleteIs it the true wave 5 top in 2020 ?, or is it the Sep or Jan 2018 top ? as that will determine the correct count from here on. It is critical to make an assessment on that from here on to do the count.
The fact is tho, it may vary on diff indexes.
Note that in the tech sector NDX has shown a strong rally because MSFT has had the same.
ReplyDeleteA LT chart on MSFT would appear to indicate this rally the past few weeks is probably a B wave or wave 2 rally of a large neg wave.