The blue wave [4]-up remains possible, but perhaps with reduced likelihood. The rebound high needs to hold AND we need to see an "immediate" sell-off that eventually breaches the low for [5]-down. Otherwise, a retest of the low, if it occurs before moving higher, may be better counted as the purple (B)-down or the green (2)-down. See Chart 3.
Keep an eye on the potential larger structure (Chart 4).
Charts 1 & 3:
ReplyDeleteHaving regard to the rally from 23 March to MTU's Green (1) its wave form is not consistent with being a small impulse wave.
There are certain secrets about how to identify ambiguous waves as being either corrective or impulse (both during and after they have formed) that I know that are critical in wave determination. They are things that both Elliott & Gann didnt mention and I dont believe either of them knew about, nor anybody else who I have seen and heard about.
I would tho state that diff stks are in diff timing positions so bear that in mind during this time frame - some may rise and some may fall - so dont rely on indexes to form your view.
Charts 2 & 4:
As rule of thumb note that the Aug 1987 decline of similar magnitude took til Feb 1988 to properly turn around.
Question MTU - where are you deriving this purple (A) from in Chart 3 ?
ReplyDeleteAnd where also is the purple (C) coming from ?
purple (A) is the same as the blue (A).
Deletepurple (B) is the same as the blue (B).
purple (C) in Chart 3 is a contracting EDT. The first leg is from blue [2] to blue (3) - ignore the labels, only the starting and ending index levels. The rest of the legs can be inferred from the purple lines - one line connects 1&3 of the purple (C), the other line connects 2&4 of the purple (C)
And also, thanks for your insights
Chart 3
DeleteTo be a purple (A) there has to be 5 down to the 23 March low preceding it, and your count doesnt show that - it only shows either blue [123] or [ABC]. This is why I query it.
I still dont understand your reply about the purple (C) but its doesnt matter.
To clarify are you saying that purple (A) is the countertrend off the 5 down from blue [2] on 4 March ? If so you should have labelled its as a wave (a) not (A).
DeleteBut that doesnt gel because of timing issues.
My previous reply was about it from the Feb peak based on your labelling.
the purple (A) is the same as the blue (A) from 3393.52 to 2855.84
Deletethe purple (B) is the same as the blue (B) from 2855.84 to 3083.04
then the purple (C) follows as a contracting EDT
?? There is no purple (B) on Chart 3.
DeleteYou've lost me - dont worry I know where the real count most prob is on this as I mapped all this out mathematically last Nov and its running on target pretty well.
I see the EDT which is the blue (A) (B) and (you seem to be saying) the purple (C).
I think you need to start afresh and redraw this chart.
Its pity I cant upload a chart anymore as I would put in my counts.