Nasdaq mading new record highs this past week lends additional support to counting the rebound since the March low in SPX as a B-up wave or start of the new upswing, rather than a 2nd wave.
The sharp reversal this week opens the possibility that the next down wave in SPX has started, BUT from a failed high (orthodox high) to be in alignment with NDX . See Chart 1.
For the week, SPX not only managed to test its 200-day moving average and the 2019 resistance now acting as potential support, but also close above them. Price actions so far are also consistent with a moderate pull back, which we track as another wave X-down in SPX. See Chart 2 green and Chart 3 green.
Per my previous comment that mathematically the 3 flatish peaks and lower wave bottoms we have seen on most indexes the past 2 yrs since Jan 2018 can only be the result of main cycles peaking and rolling over (at least temporarily).
ReplyDeleteOnce the tech stks reach their exhaustion points the indexes will slide.
Also when you consider articles like this the probabilities of a EW 5 passed become realistic.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dollar-is-going-to-fall-very-very-sharply-warns-prominent-yale-economist-2020-06-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
And recent reports of this rally since March being fueled by inexperienced small investors stuck at home due to the lockdown who are trying to make a buck in the ST, and people who cant go to Vegas to gamble, that will also come into play.
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