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The key question is which is the orthodox top of the EW count of the completion of 5 up from 2009 & 2016 lows.
There are 3 candidates: Jan 2018, Sept 2018 or Jan 2020 tops.
Prechters EWI puts the current position as being 2020 peak with the Feb-March slide as a wave i and the rally to June as ii of a possible neg wave 1 or A down. That is, mkt is currently in wave iii down. That is quite possible.
However there are other possible counts here which if running ??? would indicate modest correction (your green (b)) and resumed slow rally before a C or 3 commences into 2021.
Also throwing analysis is whether the current wave counts is expanding or not in time.
As I have said before what throws out the EW count and projections on the US indexes is their tech stk components which are running on a different timetable to the others.
Chart 1 - SPX DJIA etc..
ReplyDeleteThe key question is which is the orthodox top of the EW count of the completion of 5 up from 2009 & 2016 lows.
There are 3 candidates: Jan 2018, Sept 2018 or Jan 2020 tops.
Prechters EWI puts the current position as being 2020 peak with the Feb-March slide as a wave i and the rally to June as ii of a possible neg wave 1 or A down. That is, mkt is currently in wave iii down. That is quite possible.
However there are other possible counts here which if running ??? would indicate modest correction (your green (b)) and resumed slow rally before a C or 3 commences into 2021.
Also throwing analysis is whether the current wave counts is expanding or not in time.
As I have said before what throws out the EW count and projections on the US indexes is their tech stk components which are running on a different timetable to the others.