Wednesday, December 15, 2010

MTU Special Ed - Hope Rally Ends Here (Dec 2010 attempt) (12/15/10)

Hope Rally Update (12/3/10) outlines two primary tracking counts (red and blue) for the advance in stocks since the March 2009 low. Chart 1 updates. The structure from the July 2010 low of the additional gray count in Chart 1 is practically the same as that of the blue count.

The big if - IF the market is tracing out the gray or the blue count, IF minor wave 5 has actually started at the November lows, and IF the final minor wave 5 which started at the November 2010 low does not extend, ...

The conclusion- there is now enough structure and some initial confirmation to call the end of the larger hope rally.

The key to this interpretation is to recognize / assume a truncated fifth wave in SPX, but not in INDU. In other words, at the top, SPX (and WLSH, COMPQ, NDX ...) did not manage a new high while INDU did. Chart 2 (SPX) and Chart 3 (INDU) offer squiggle counts of the final stretch since the November 2010 low.

Technical note - Depending on where one marks the end of wave (i) of [v], major indexes are yet to breach the top of wave (i) of [v] or some have already done so, reducing the odds of the decline being wave (iv) of [v]. In addition, we now have a decent-looking initial small-degree 5 wave decline from the nominal high in INDU and orthodox high in the rest of the indexes.

The fine print (RISKS to the assessment) - Risks to the current assessment are
[1] A miscount in the squiggles in Chart 2 and Chart 3 that prematurely excludes another higher high (i.e. wave (v) of [v] of 5) . If this is the case, the upside is fairly limited given the small size of wave (i) of [v], the extended nature of wave (iii) of [v] and the relatively deep decline from the recent high.

[2] A wrong assumption that minor wave 5 has actually started. In that case, the top is wave [b] of minor wave 4 and we should see a wave [c] decline which may threaten to breach the November low if wave 4 traces out an expanded flat. The structure and the personality of the decline will shed some light.

[3] A wrong assumption that minor wave 5 does not extend. In that case, the proposed top is actually wave [i] of 5 (or preferably [i] of C) , and the current decline is the start of wave [ii] of 5. Wave [iii] of 5 will push the market to new highs.
(a) We should be able to tell whether minor wave 5 extends from the structure and the personality of the decline.
(b) If minor wave 5 does extend, its wave structure / trajectory going forward is practically the same as the red count in Chart 1. In that case, the corrective red count will become the preferred/primary count in terms of its look and feel.

Finally - Sentiment, market internals, primary(and up) degree wave ratios, and certain time relationships also hint at a potential top.