Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Market Timing Update (12/7/10)

[1115pm] UST 10Y -
A sharp decline in bonds today (yields up). Here are the counts on the March UST 10Y futures. Looks like a potential ED may be forming - a sharp retrace is coming if this is the case.

[650pm]What if it was not a triangle in the futures? These two very similar counts address that scenario.

[EOD] Five ways up since the Nov 30th triangle low can be counted complete. The best interpretation is some kind of top is in place at this morning's high. Chart 1 lists "all" of the top tracking counts.

On the bullish side,this top is [i] of hope rally 3 (black in Chart 1) (see Hope Rally Update (12/3/10)). The immediately bullish count (green in Chart 1) is practically eliminated based on the AH decline, unless futures rally back immediately.

Chart 2 updates the larger count regarding the entire hope rally.

On the bearish side, the top technically satisfies, meets the minimum requirement of the top of P[2] (grey and red in Chart 2) and the top of P[1] (blue in Chart 2).

[Real time entries]
during the day session are archived at MTU Real Time.