Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Market Timing Update (12/21/10)

[Bullish and Bearish Considerations] from a wave structure perspective ...
Obviously, the bearish count sees the pending top as the end of minor wave 5 since the July low, and probably the end of Hope Rally altogether.

Now "a" bullish count, as inspired by SPX priced in Gold (Chart 1), SPX squiggles (Chart 2) , and Gold's wave structure (Chart 3) .

The SPX/Gold ratio is showing initial potential of a sizable wave [C] advance, as the count in Chart 1 anticipates. However, such an advance requires SPX to substantially outperform Gold in up or down markets. A close inspection of Gold's wave structure in Chart 3 suggests a potential small degree fifth wave yet to come (assuming Gold has not topped.)

Thus, on the bullish side, one possible scenario is that the near term peak in SPX is only minute wave [iii] since the November low, with [iv]-down and [v]-up to come - keeping the SPX/Gold ratio up. This is indicated by the blue count in Chart 2. The caveat is that this count does not have the best form. (The other possibility is some kind of extended wave 5 or wave [v]).

In addition, Gold either tops before stocks or at the same time as stocks but falls much faster than stocks - both are reasonable scenarios - continue to feed the advance in the SPX/Gold ratio.

[EOD] INDU appears to have broken out of a triangle and SPX appears to be forming a potential ending diagonal triangle, both terminal patterns at least for this segment of the advance (Chart 1 and Chart 2) . The move is likely at its final stages if not already over - see the black and red counts in the YM chart 3. Chart 4 shows the EDT in ES.

[730am] overnight update -
As stated yesterday, if these counts are correct, maximum potential is 1257.25/.75 in ES for this wave.