Monday, December 27, 2010

Market Timing Update (12/27/10)

[EOD] There is no change regarding the wave structure outlined in the overnight update. Using ES, the primary count (black) is that wave (v) of [iii] of 5 started at this morning's low.

The second most likely count (green) is that wave [iv] of 5 is likely still in progress. Since the Dow made a lower low late November, it may be preferable to mark the end of minor wave 4 there. Thus, this count (which assumes minor wave 4 ended much earlier in SPX than it did in the Dow) is less appealing, but valid for SPX nevertheless.

The less likely count (red) is that the top is in. Note that the red count is technically valid too.

[915am] Overnight update-
Primary count is that this pullback is a small degree 4th wave. The more bearish alternative count is shown in red and green.