Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Market Timing Update (12/1/10)

[PS] Today's strong advance in stocks has left us with two major competing counts for the near term. The following charts (using the mini-dow) are the same as those in the [4pm EOD] update, but the labels have been cleaned up and put into the right degree

On the bullish side, a new minor degree advance may have started (black labels). The new recovery highs in $TRAN and $RUT appear to lend support to this interpretation (But ... see below).

On the bearish side, today's advance could be (c)-up of [b]-up of the correction that started in early November (green labels). Wave [c]-down may drive the market to lower lows (if a flat-like structure) or sideways (if a triangle). The negative divergence in the daily $TRAN and $RUT charts despite the higher highs appear to lend support to this interpretation.

Finally, on second thought, the correction that had started early November may or may not be minor wave 4. The implication is the possibility of a deeper retracement (beyond the expectation of a minor wave 4) without loosing the upside potential. The MTU Weekend edition will address the larger structure if necessary.

[4pm EOD] Stocks
A couple of indexes ($TRAN and $RUT) made new recovery highs beyond their Nov highs.
Most attractive tracking counts are a large upward flat as wave [b] before another decline OR an impulse up to new highs.

[Real time entries] during the day session are archived at MTU Real Time.