Monday, October 3, 2011

Market Timing Update (10/3/11)

[EOD]Stocks -
INDU, COMPQ (< 4 index points), NDX and major European benchmarks (at mid-day) are the only ones standing above their respective nominal low, while SPX, MIDcap, NYSE composite, RUT2K, TRAN and Wilshire5000 broke down to new lows today.

It's difficult to read too much into the divergence at the moment, but they tend to occur at peaks and troughs as well as complex corrections. Larger picture-wise, consider the Aug low breached in the cash indexes.

The [150pm] entry refreshes the primary bullish (ES and green count on SPX) and bearish counts on SPX/ES and the [215pm] entry on the VIX.

See Around the World in 5 waves (9/30/11) for additional discussion. Obviously, today's decline suggests that the green wave 5 (or wave (C) or wave 1 of (3)) is extending according to one of the counts. Other options still apply.

[215pm] VIX update -
breakout or peter out

[150pm] SPX count update -
Before the nominal low in the cash SPX index is taken out, an update of the bull and bear counts is warranted, see charts. The nominal low is still about 30 points away in ES.
[1235pm] fresh nominal lows -
in MIDcap, RUT2K, TRAN, Wilshire5000 and counting?
[1140am] A look at how DAX closed plus Gold update -

[930am] DAX, ES update -
will the low in ES hold?